Finished

Low risk

Slonim vs Smorgon

0–2Full time

Sun, Aug 16, 03:00 PMYunost Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 79/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Low risk

Home Win

Slonim (WLLWL) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.1 for Smorgon (WLLWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 79/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

79/100

Confidence

79/100

Strongest cover

80.3% probability

Risk classification

Low

20.0% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

2 sources

13 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

S win60.3%

Draw20%

S win19.7%

Goals

Over 1.578.6%

Over 2.564.2%

Under 2.535.8%

Both teams to score

Yes59.7%

No40.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Slonim

6/15 recent form points

WLLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.80
Shots on target: Unavailable

Smorgon

9/15 recent form points

WLLWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.20
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 16, 12:01 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Smorgon 0-2 Slonim

2026-04-18T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Slonim 1-3 Smorgon

2022-08-13T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Smorgon 2-0 Slonim

2022-04-10T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Smorgon 0-2 Slonim

2020-09-19T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Slonim 0-1 Smorgon

2020-05-17T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Slonim 0-0 Smorgon

2019-11-02T12:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Smorgon 2-2 Slonim

2019-06-30T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Slonim 1-2 Smorgon

2018-09-22T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Smorgon 0-5 Slonim

2018-05-27T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Smorgon 8-0 Slonim

2017-09-16T14:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	DafabetBest price +2.9%	4.50	22.2%	19.7%	-2.5%
	Marathonbet	4.25	23.5%	19.7%	-3.8%
Draw 1X2	DafabetBest price +1.7%	4.40	22.7%	20.0%	-2.7%
	Marathonbet	4.25	23.5%	20.0%	-3.5%
Home 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +1.0%	1.56	64.1%	60.3%	-3.8%
	Dafabet	1.53	65.4%	60.3%	-5.1%
Under 2.5 Totals	Marathonbet	2.56	39.1%	35.8%	-3.3%
Over 2.5 Totals	Marathonbet	1.40	71.4%	64.2%	-7.2%
No BTTS	Marathonbet	2.27	44.1%	40.3%	-3.8%
Yes BTTS	Marathonbet	1.52	65.8%	59.7%	-6.1%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Marathonbet	2.13	46.9%	0.0%	-46.9%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Marathonbet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
Home or Away Double Chance	Marathonbet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%

Model reasoning

Slonim at home has a stronger overall record than Smorgon, with 10 wins from 20 matches compared to Smorgon’s 6 wins from 20. Slonim also has the better goal difference, scoring 36 and conceding 26 versus Smorgon’s 24 scored and 29 conceded, which supports the case for a home edge. In recent form, Slonim’s sequence is WLLWL, showing some inconsistency but still a slight tilt toward positive results. Smorgon’s recent form is WLLWW, which includes more wins at the end of the run, so the away side is not without momentum, even if their season scoring output is lower. The goal profile also leans toward a home win with open play. Slonim averages 36/20 = 1.8 goals per match and concedes 26/20 = 1.3, while Smorgon averages 1.2 scored and 1.45 conceded, aligning with the higher likelihood of over 2.5 goals (64.2%) and both teams to score (59.7%). Overall, the matchup probabilities point to Slonim being more likely to win than draw or lose (60.3% home win), with a relatively low risk profile. Still, the draw chance (20.0%) and Smorgon’s recent two-win finish mean the result is not guaranteed.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-2

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 58.2%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

More predictions

All 1. Division predictions →

Team hubs: Slonim predictions · Smorgon predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.