Pre-match

Medium risk

Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd prediction

Sat, Sep 19, 11:30 AMBet365 Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 66/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Stoke City (LLWWD) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.2 for Sheffield Utd (DDWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 66/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

66/100

Confidence

66/100

Strongest cover

73.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.4% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SC win44%

Draw26.4%

SU win29.6%

Goals

Over 1.577.5%

Over 2.552.9%

Under 2.547.1%

Both teams to score

Yes56.7%

No43.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Stoke City

7/15 recent form points

LLWWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Sheffield Utd

8/15 recent form points

DDWLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.33
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Stoke City 1-2 Sheffield Utd

2025-12-29T20:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sheffield Utd 4-0 Stoke City

2025-12-06T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Stoke City 0-2 Sheffield Utd

2025-04-25T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Sheffield Utd 2-0 Stoke City

2024-10-26T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Sheffield Utd 3-1 Stoke City

2023-01-14T16:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Stoke City 3-1 Sheffield Utd

2022-10-08T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Stoke City 1-0 Sheffield Utd

2022-04-02T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Sheffield Utd 2-1 Stoke City

2021-10-16T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Stoke City 2-2 Sheffield Utd

2019-05-05T13:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sheffield Utd 1-1 Stoke City

2018-10-23T20:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

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Team hubs: Stoke City predictions · Sheffield Utd predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.