Pre-match

Medium risk

Value +35.6%

Staal Jørpeland vs Haugesund II

Mon, Aug 17, 04:00 PM

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 65/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Staal Jørpeland (LDLLW) project at 2.2 expected goals versus 1.8 for Haugesund II (WLDLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 65/100 confidence with medium risk. The strongest fair-price edge is Draw or Away at 35.6 percentage points.

Confidence

65/100

Confidence

65/100

Strongest cover

80.1% probability

Risk classification

Medium

19.9% draw weight

Value status

Draw or Away

+35.6 pp vs market

Market sample

6 sources

50 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SJ win28.8%

Draw19.9%

HI win51.3%

Goals

Over 1.590.8%

Over 2.579.2%

Under 2.520.8%

Both teams to score

Yes76.1%

No23.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Staal Jørpeland

4/15 recent form points

LDLLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Haugesund II

7/15 recent form points

WLDLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.13
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/3 and Over 2.5 in 3/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

Double Chance · William Hill

Draw or Away

Model edge

+35.6 pp

Model: 71.2%
Market fair: 35.6%
Price: 1.55

The model assigns this outcome a higher chance than the margin-adjusted market view. Its model-fair price is 1.40 versus 1.55 offered. That is a disagreement with the market, not a promise of profit.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 17, 12:00 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Haugesund II 0-3 Staal Jørpeland

2026-04-12T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Staal Jørpeland 3-2 Haugesund II

2025-09-22T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Haugesund II 2-3 Staal Jørpeland

2025-06-07T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +6.0%	4.60	21.7%	19.9%	-1.8%
	Marathonbet	4.50	22.2%	19.9%	-2.3%
	10Bet	4.40	22.7%	19.9%	-2.8%
	Bet365	4.33	23.1%	19.9%	-3.2%
	Unibet	4.20	23.8%	19.9%	-3.9%
	William Hill	4.00	25.0%	19.9%	-5.1%
Home 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +13.5%	3.65	27.4%	28.8%	+1.4%
	Betfair	3.60	27.8%	28.8%	+1.0%
	10Bet	3.40	29.4%	28.8%	-0.6%
	Unibet	3.30	30.3%	28.8%	-1.5%
	Bet365	3.10	32.3%	28.8%	-3.5%
	William Hill	2.25	44.4%	28.8%	-15.6%
Away 1X2	William HillBest price +26.2%	2.25	44.4%	51.3%	+6.9%
	Bet365	1.80	55.6%	51.3%	-4.3%
	Unibet	1.71	58.5%	51.3%	-7.2%
	10Bet	1.67	59.9%	51.3%	-8.6%
	Betfair	1.65	60.6%	51.3%	-9.3%
	Marathonbet	1.62	61.7%	51.3%	-10.4%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +15.2%	5.20	19.2%	20.8%	+1.6%
	Marathonbet	4.55	22.0%	20.8%	-1.2%
	Unibet	4.30	23.3%	20.8%	-2.5%
	Bet365	4.00	25.0%	20.8%	-4.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +5.4%	1.22	82.0%	79.2%	-2.8%
	Unibet	1.15	87.0%	79.2%	-7.8%
	Marathonbet	1.13	88.5%	79.2%	-9.3%
	Betfair	1.13	88.5%	79.2%	-9.3%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +8.4%	4.20	23.8%	23.9%	+0.1%
	Marathonbet	3.82	26.2%	23.9%	-2.3%
	William Hill	3.60	27.8%	23.9%	-3.9%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +1.4%	1.22	82.0%	76.1%	-5.9%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	76.1%	-7.2%
	Marathonbet	1.19	84.0%	76.1%	-7.9%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +10.7%	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	10Bet	2.05	48.8%	0.0%	-48.8%
	Marathonbet	2.03	49.3%	0.0%	-49.3%
	Bet365	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	Unibet	1.82	54.9%	0.0%	-54.9%
	William Hill	1.55	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +20.2%	1.55	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5%
	10Bet	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Unibet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Betfair	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.1%	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Bet365	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Betfair	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Unibet	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	10Bet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Marathonbet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%

Model reasoning

Haugesund II look slightly more likely to take points, with a stronger away win probability (51.3%) than Staal Jørpeland’s home win chance (28.8%). The draw sits at 19.9%, so the matchup profile leans toward Haugesund II edging the result rather than a low-scoring stalemate. Both teams have similar defensive records, each conceding 37 goals in 15 matches, while their scoring output is also close (Staal Jørpeland 30, Haugesund II 32). With Haugesund II also having no clean sheets, the data suggests goals are more likely than a shutout scenario. The over 2.5 goals probability is high at 79.2%, and both teams to score is even higher at 76.1%. That combination points to a game where at least one side is likely to score multiple times or both sides contribute at least once. Overall, the prediction for Over 2.5 goals fits the scoring and concession rates, with medium risk because the teams’ results are not dominant enough to rule out a tighter game.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Mon, 17 Aug 2026 14:33 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

More predictions

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Team hubs: Staal Jørpeland predictions · Haugesund II predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.