Pre-match

Low risk

Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union prediction

Sun, Sep 20, 12:30 AMChildren's Mercy Park

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 77/100

Model verdict

Low risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Sporting Kansas City (LDLLL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 2 for Philadelphia Union (DDWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 77/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

77/100

Confidence

77/100

Strongest cover

77.3% probability

Risk classification

Low

22.7% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SKC win23.9%

Draw22.7%

PU win53.4%

Goals

Over 1.584.7%

Over 2.564.1%

Under 2.535.9%

Both teams to score

Yes63.9%

No36.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Sporting Kansas City

1/15 recent form points

LDLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Philadelphia Union

11/15 recent form points

DDWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.71
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Sporting Kansas City 1-1 Philadelphia Union

2024-03-03T02:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Philadelphia Union 0-0 Sporting Kansas City

2023-04-02T01:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Philadelphia Union 3-1 Sporting Kansas City

2020-07-31T02:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sporting Kansas City 2-0 Philadelphia Union

2019-03-10T20:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Philadelphia Union 2-0 Sporting Kansas City

2018-09-23T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Sporting Kansas City 1-1 Philadelphia Union

2017-07-07T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Philadelphia Union 2-0 Sporting Kansas City

2016-08-28T01:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Philadelphia Union 2-2 Sporting Kansas City

2015-10-01T01:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sporting Kansas City 3-2 Philadelphia Union

2015-04-06T01:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Philadelphia Union 2-1 Sporting Kansas City

2014-10-19T01:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Over 2.5 Goals lean for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: Low risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

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Team hubs: Sporting Kansas City predictions · Philadelphia Union predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.