1. Division
Finished
Low risk

Sport Academy Kairat vs Akademiya Ontustik

00Full time
Thu, Aug 13, 12:00 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 79/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Low risk

Home Win

Sport Academy Kairat (WDLDW) project at 2.1 expected goals versus 0.9 for Akademiya Ontustik (WLWDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 79/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

79/100

Confidence
79/100

Strongest cover

1X

86.2% probability

Risk classification

Low

20.0% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SAK win66.2%
Draw20%
AO win13.8%

Goals

Over 1.581.8%
Over 2.559.4%
Under 2.540.6%

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Sport Academy Kairat

8/15 recent form points

WDLDW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
3.16
Shots on target
Unavailable

Akademiya Ontustik

10/15 recent form points

WLWDW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.63
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 8/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Sport Academy Kairat 0-0 Akademiya Ontustik

2026-08-13T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Akademiya Ontustik 1-3 Sport Academy Kairat

2026-05-15T13:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sport Academy Kairat 0-3 Akademiya Ontustik

2025-09-19T13:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Akademiya Ontustik 3-5 Sport Academy Kairat

2025-06-19T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Akademiya Ontustik 2-3 Sport Academy Kairat

2023-08-11T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sport Academy Kairat 1-1 Akademiya Ontustik

2023-05-04T02:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Akademiya Ontustik 0-5 Sport Academy Kairat

2022-09-11T13:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Sport Academy Kairat 2-2 Akademiya Ontustik

2022-05-28T13:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Akademiya Ontustik 1-2 Sport Academy Kairat

2021-10-16T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sport Academy Kairat 4-0 Akademiya Ontustik

2021-06-25T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Sport Academy Kairat have been very strong at both ends of the pitch this season, with 60 goals scored and only 10 conceded across 19 matches, plus 12 clean sheets. Their recent run also includes more wins than losses (WDLDW), which supports the idea that they can control the game at home. Akademiya Ontustik’s away profile looks less dominant, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded in 19 matches, and only 4 clean sheets. Their recent form (WLWDW) suggests they can compete, but they have been more vulnerable defensively than Kairat, which reduces the likelihood of an away win. The market-style probabilities align with this matchup: Kairat are favored for a home win (66.2%) with a relatively low draw rate (20.0%). There’s also a moderate lean toward over 2.5 goals (59.4%) and both teams to score (54.4%), consistent with Kairat’s scoring ability while Ontustik still has some chance to find goals. Overall, the home win case looks reasonable rather than certain, supported by Kairat’s superior goal difference and clean-sheet frequency, while Ontustik’s results suggest they’re more likely to draw or lose than to win away.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 68.2% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.2409 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Thu, 13 Aug 2026 00:04 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Sport Academy Kairat predictions · Akademiya Ontustik predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.