Pre-match

Low risk

Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City prediction

Fri, Oct 2, 01:30 AMLumen Field

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 77/100

Model verdict

Low risk

Home Win

Seattle Sounders (LLDDD) project at 1.9 expected goals versus 1 for Sporting Kansas City (LDLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 77/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

77/100

Confidence

77/100

Strongest cover

83.6% probability

Risk classification

Low

22.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SS win61.4%

Draw22.2%

SKC win16.4%

Goals

Over 1.578.6%

Over 2.554.6%

Under 2.545.4%

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%

No46.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Seattle Sounders

3/15 recent form points

LLDDD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.09
Shots on target: Unavailable

Sporting Kansas City

1/15 recent form points

LDLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 7/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Sporting Kansas City 1-1 Seattle Sounders

2026-05-02T20:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Seattle Sounders 5-2 Sporting Kansas City

2025-08-25T03:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sporting Kansas City 2-3 Seattle Sounders

2025-07-13T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Seattle Sounders 2-0 Sporting Kansas City

2024-09-16T01:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Seattle Sounders

2024-06-09T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Seattle Sounders 1-2 Sporting Kansas City

2023-05-07T22:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sporting Kansas City 1-4 Seattle Sounders

2023-03-26T01:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sporting Kansas City 1-0 Seattle Sounders

2022-10-02T23:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Seattle Sounders 3-0 Sporting Kansas City

2022-06-25T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Seattle Sounders 1-2 Sporting Kansas City

2021-10-23T21:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: Low risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

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Team hubs: Seattle Sounders predictions · Sporting Kansas City predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.