Finished

Medium risk

SC Braga vs Austria Vienna

2–0Full time

Thu, Aug 20, 07:00 PMEstádio Municipal de Braga

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 64/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

SC Braga (WWWDW) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 0.9 for Austria Vienna (WWWDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 64/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

64/100

Confidence

64/100

Strongest cover

80.8% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.0% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SB win54.8%

Draw26%

AV win19.2%

Goals

Over 1.569.2%

Over 2.542.1%

Under 2.557.9%

Both teams to score

Yes46.2%

No53.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

SC Braga

13/15 recent form points

WWWDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.60
Shots on target: Unavailable

Austria Vienna

10/15 recent form points

WWWDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.80
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: No H2H · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Braga’s home record is strong in this sample, with 4 wins and 5 matches played, plus 5 clean sheets and 0 goals conceded. Their recent form is also very steady, showing four matches without defeat (WWWDW), which supports a home edge. Austria Vienna’s away profile is more mixed. They have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 9 goals scored but 6 conceded, and only 1 clean sheet. Their recent run includes a loss in the latest stretch (WWWDL), which slightly weakens their case for an away win. The overall goal indicators are less clear-cut. Over 2.5 goals is below the halfway mark at 42.1%, and both teams to score is also under 50% at 46.2%, aligning with the idea that Braga may control the game but not necessarily produce a high-scoring match. With home win probability at 54.8% versus 19.2% for Austria Vienna, the home win lean fits the defensive strength shown by Braga at home. The confidence is moderate (64) and the risk is medium, since Austria Vienna can still score and the match could tighten if Braga’s attack doesn’t convert early.

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 53.6%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

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Team hubs: SC Braga predictions · Austria Vienna predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.