Finished

Medium risk

Saburtalo II vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1–1Full time

Thu, Aug 13, 01:30 PMStadioni Bendela

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 76/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Saburtalo II (LWWWD) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 0.8 for Lokomotivi Tbilisi (WWDWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 76/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

76/100

Confidence

76/100

Strongest cover

82.3% probability

Risk classification

Medium

24.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

51 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SI win58.2%

Draw24.1%

LT win17.7%

Goals

Over 1.570.5%

Over 2.550.4%

Under 2.549.6%

Both teams to score

Yes50.1%

No49.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Saburtalo II

10/15 recent form points

LWWWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.59
Shots on target: Unavailable

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

11/15 recent form points

WWDWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.94
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/6 and Over 2.5 in 3/6.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 13, 12:04 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Saburtalo II 1-1 Lokomotivi Tbilisi

2026-08-13T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1-4 Saburtalo II

2026-03-12T11:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Saburtalo II 2-1 Lokomotivi Tbilisi

2025-11-25T11:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1-1 Saburtalo II

2025-09-27T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Saburtalo II 1-1 Lokomotivi Tbilisi

2025-06-01T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 4-2 Saburtalo II

2025-04-16T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +10.9%	5.30	18.9%	17.7%	-1.2%
	Bet365	5.00	20.0%	17.7%	-2.3%
	Betfair	5.00	20.0%	17.7%	-2.3%
	1xBet	4.53	22.1%	17.7%	-4.4%
	William Hill	4.50	22.2%	17.7%	-4.5%
	Pinnacle	4.34	23.0%	17.7%	-5.3%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +2.8%	3.70	27.0%	24.1%	-2.9%
	Marathonbet	3.70	27.0%	24.1%	-2.9%
	Betfair	3.60	27.8%	24.1%	-3.7%
	Pinnacle	3.60	27.8%	24.1%	-3.7%
	William Hill	3.50	28.6%	24.1%	-4.5%
	1xBet	3.50	28.6%	24.1%	-4.5%
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +7.1%	1.72	58.1%	58.2%	+0.1%
	Pinnacle	1.65	60.6%	58.2%	-2.4%
	William Hill	1.62	61.7%	58.2%	-3.5%
	Betfair	1.57	63.7%	58.2%	-5.5%
	Bet365	1.55	64.5%	58.2%	-6.3%
	Marathonbet	1.53	65.4%	58.2%	-7.2%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.6%	1.95	51.3%	49.6%	-1.7%
	Marathonbet	1.89	52.9%	49.6%	-3.3%
	Pinnacle	1.89	52.9%	49.6%	-3.3%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	49.6%	-4.5%
	1xBet	1.83	54.6%	49.6%	-5.0%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.1%	1.85	54.1%	50.4%	-3.7%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	50.4%	-3.7%
	Pinnacle	1.85	54.1%	50.4%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	1.80	55.6%	50.4%	-5.2%
	1xBet	1.80	55.6%	50.4%	-5.2%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +2.8%	1.91	52.4%	49.9%	-2.5%
	William Hill	1.85	54.1%	49.9%	-4.2%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	49.9%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	1.82	54.9%	49.9%	-5.0%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.1%	1.85	54.1%	50.1%	-4.0%
	1xBet	1.85	54.1%	50.1%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	1.82	54.9%	50.1%	-4.8%
	William Hill	1.80	55.6%	50.1%	-5.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +9.9%	2.40	41.7%	0.0%	-41.7%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5%
	Marathonbet	2.19	45.7%	0.0%	-45.7%
	William Hill	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	1xBet	2.03	49.3%	0.0%	-49.3%
Home or Away Double Chance	1xBetBest price +3.3%	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	William Hill	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
	Bet365	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.5%	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	1xBet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	Betfair	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Bet365	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	Marathonbet	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%

Model reasoning

Saburtalo II at home look stronger in overall results, with 10 wins in 17 matches and a strong defensive record of 9 clean sheets. They’ve conceded only 10 goals across the season, which supports the idea that Lokomotivi Tbilisi may struggle to score consistently when visiting. Lokomotivi Tbilisi’s away record is more mixed, with only 5 wins and 7 losses in 17 matches, and they’ve scored 16 while conceding 22. Their recent form includes two wins and a draw in the latest stretch, but their season scoring and defensive numbers suggest they’re less likely to control the game away from home. The goal-related indicators are close to a coin flip, with over 2.5 goals at 50.4% and both teams to score at 50.1%. That points to a match where Saburtalo II can edge the result, but it’s not a clear-cut high-scoring or one-sided scenario. With home win probability at 58.2% versus 17.7% for an away win, the home edge is the main driver behind the Home Win lean, though the moderate confidence and near-even goal markets keep the risk at a medium level.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 60.6% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.1964 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Thu, 13 Aug 2026 13:00 UTC, before kickoff at 1.57 (Betfair), by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Saburtalo II predictions · Lokomotivi Tbilisi predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.