UEFA Champions League
Finished
Medium risk

Sabah FA vs Aarhus

40Full time
Tue, Aug 11, 04:00 PMBank Respublika Arena

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 64/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk

Home Win

Sabah FA (WWWLW) project at 1.9 expected goals versus 1 for Aarhus (LWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 64/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

64/100

Confidence
64/100

Strongest cover

1X

84.9% probability

Risk classification

Medium

21.0% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SF win63.9%
Draw21%
A win15.1%

Goals

Over 1.578.5%
Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%

Both teams to score

Yes53.2%
No46.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Sabah FA

12/15 recent form points

WWWLW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Aarhus

6/12 recent form points

LWWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Aarhus 2-1 Sabah FA

2026-08-05T19:10:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Sabah FA look stronger in this matchup, with a near-perfect home record in their 6 matches (5W 0D 1L) and a strong goal profile of 12 scored and only 3 conceded. They also have 4 clean sheets, which suggests they can control games defensively, and their recent form includes three wins in their last five outings. Aarhus, meanwhile, have been less consistent away from home, with 2 wins and 2 losses in 4 matches and a negative defensive record of 10 conceded. They have not kept a clean sheet this season, and their recent form shows two wins but also two defeats, indicating they can struggle to sustain results. The market signals align with a home-leaning outcome: the home win probability is 63.9% versus 21.0% for a draw and 15.1% for an away win. There’s also a slight lean toward a game with goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54.5% and both teams to score at 53.2%, so while Sabah FA may be more likely to win, the match could still produce scoring from both sides. Overall, the prediction of a Sabah FA win fits the stronger home record and better defensive stats, but the moderate confidence (64) and the close-to-even scoring indicators keep the risk at a medium level.

Recorded forecast

Final score

4-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 49.0% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1611 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:05 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.