Finished

Medium risk

Nizhny Novgorod U19 vs Akademiya Konoplev U20

0–2Full time

Fri, Aug 14, 09:00 AM

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 73/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Nizhny Novgorod U19 (WLLLW) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.8 for Akademiya Konoplev U20 (DLWDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 73/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

73/100

Confidence

73/100

Strongest cover

77.7% probability

Risk classification

Medium

22.3% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

3 sources

23 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

NNU win30.8%

Draw22.3%

AKU win46.9%

Goals

Over 1.587.5%

Over 2.570.6%

Under 2.529.4%

Both teams to score

Yes70.5%

No29.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Nizhny Novgorod U19

6/15 recent form points

WLLLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.28
Shots on target: Unavailable

Akademiya Konoplev U20

5/15 recent form points

DLWDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/6 and Over 2.5 in 5/6.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 14, 08:28 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Akademiya Konoplev U20 1-1 Nizhny Novgorod U19

2026-04-03T10:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Nizhny Novgorod U19 3-1 Akademiya Konoplev U20

2025-09-26T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Akademiya Konoplev U20 2-1 Nizhny Novgorod U19

2025-05-09T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nizhny Novgorod U19 2-1 Akademiya Konoplev U20

2023-08-25T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nizhny Novgorod U19 5-2 Akademiya Konoplev U20

2021-12-03T12:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Akademiya Konoplev U20 0-4 Nizhny Novgorod U19

2021-09-10T11:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	DafabetBest price +0.2%	3.95	25.3%	22.3%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	3.94	25.4%	22.3%	-3.1%
	1xBet	3.94	25.4%	22.3%	-3.1%
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +0.7%	2.96	33.8%	30.8%	-3.0%
	Dafabet	2.95	33.9%	30.8%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	2.91	34.4%	30.8%	-3.6%
Away 1X2	DafabetBest price +0.7%	1.98	50.5%	46.9%	-3.6%
	1xBet	1.97	50.8%	46.9%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	1.95	51.3%	46.9%	-4.4%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price	3.08	32.5%	29.4%	-3.1%
	1xBet	3.08	32.5%	29.4%	-3.1%
Over 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price	1.28	78.1%	70.6%	-7.5%
	1xBet	1.28	78.1%	70.6%	-7.5%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +1.3%	3.16	31.6%	29.5%	-2.1%
	Marathonbet	3.08	32.5%	29.5%	-3.0%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price	1.30	76.9%	70.5%	-6.4%
	1xBet	1.30	76.9%	70.5%	-6.4%
Home or Draw Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.68	59.5%	0.0%	-59.5%
	1xBet	1.68	59.5%	0.0%	-59.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.31	76.3%	0.0%	-76.3%
	1xBet	1.31	76.3%	0.0%	-76.3%
Home or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	1xBet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%

Model reasoning

Akademiya Konoplev U20 look slightly more likely to take points, with a stronger overall record (7W 5D 6L) than Nizhny Novgorod U19 (4W 3D 11L). The away side also has a better goal output (36 scored vs 23) and a similar defensive profile in terms of goals conceded (36 vs 49), which supports a game where scoring is plausible. The over 2.5 goals angle is supported by both teams’ season scoring and concession rates. Nizhny Novgorod U19 have conceded 49 in 18 matches, while Akademiya Konoplev U20 have scored 36 in 18, creating a reasonable matchup for goals. Akademiya Konoplev U20 also have conceded 36, and with Nizhny Novgorod U19 scoring 23, there is enough to suggest the game could produce more than two total goals. The probabilities align with this view: over 2.5 goals is at 70.6%, and both teams to score is at 70.5%. With a medium risk level, the main uncertainty is that Nizhny Novgorod U19’s recent form is mixed (WLLLW) and Akademiya Konoplev U20’s is also not consistently strong (DLWDL), which can sometimes limit goal volume despite the season trends.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-2

Pre-kickoff call

Over 2.5 Goals · 70.6%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

More predictions

All Youth Championship predictions →

Team hubs: Nizhny Novgorod U19 predictions · Akademiya Konoplev U20 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.