Finished

High risk

Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Yarud Mariupol'

1–3Full time

Fri, Aug 28, 09:00 AM

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 36/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Lokomotiv Kyiv (DDLD) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.1 for Yarud Mariupol' (WWDDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 36/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

36/100

Confidence

36/100

Strongest cover

70.7% probability

Risk classification

High

29.3% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

LK win36.1%

Draw29.3%

YM win34.6%

Goals

Over 1.567.6%

Over 2.540.3%

Under 2.559.7%

Both teams to score

Yes47.3%

No52.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Lokomotiv Kyiv

3/12 recent form points

DDLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.75
Shots on target: Unavailable

Yarud Mariupol'

11/15 recent form points

WWDDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.03
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: No H2H · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Under 2.5 Goals lean for Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Yarud Mariupol'. Data angle: team strength uses the 2026 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-3

Pre-kickoff call

Under 2.5 Goals · 59.7%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

More predictions

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Team hubs: Lokomotiv Kyiv predictions · Yarud Mariupol' predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.