Fountain Gate vs Mbeya City
AI prediction
Under 2.5 Goals
Confidence 54/100
Under 2.5 Goals
Fountain Gate (LLLDW) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1 for Mbeya City (WDDWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 54/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
54/100
Strongest cover
12
69.9% probability
Risk classification
High
30.1% draw weight
Value status
Pass
No qualified price edge
Market sample
6 sources
56 price observations
Full distribution
Market probabilities
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Evidence ledger
Fountain Gate
4/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 0.83
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Mbeya City
9/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 0.81
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Matchup xG signal
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/4 and Over 2.5 in 1/4.
Price interpretation
Value read
No qualified edge at this snapshot
None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.
Provenance
Model card
- Version
- livewin-hybrid-v0.6
- Data source
- Licensed live data feed
- Statistics baseline
- 2025 season
- Odds timestamp
- Aug 28, 06:20 AM UTC
- Optional coverage
- H2H available · odds available
- Confidence
- Signal agreement score
- Risk
- High · uncertainty remains
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.
Head-to-Head
Mbeya City 0-1 Fountain Gate
2026-03-03T14:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Fountain Gate 0-1 Mbeya City
2025-09-18T13:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Mbeya City 1-1 Fountain Gate
2022-12-22T14:00:00+01:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Fountain Gate 2-1 Mbeya City
2022-08-21T15:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Odds Comparison
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Away 1X2 | 1xBetBest price +4.4% | 3.02 | 33.1% | 30.5% | -2.6% |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 33.3% | 30.5% | -2.8% | |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 33.3% | 30.5% | -2.8% | |
| Marathonbet | 2.95 | 33.9% | 30.5% | -3.4% | |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 36.4% | 30.5% | -5.9% | |
| Unibet | 2.63 | 38.0% | 30.5% | -7.5% | |
Draw 1X2 | Bet365Best price +2.7% | 3.00 | 33.3% | 30.1% | -3.2% |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 33.3% | 30.1% | -3.2% | |
| Marathonbet | 2.98 | 33.6% | 30.1% | -3.5% | |
| 1xBet | 2.97 | 33.7% | 30.1% | -3.6% | |
| Unibet | 2.88 | 34.7% | 30.1% | -4.6% | |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 37.0% | 30.1% | -6.9% | |
Home 1X2 | UnibetBest price +8.9% | 2.48 | 40.3% | 39.4% | -0.9% |
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 43.5% | 39.4% | -4.1% | |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 43.9% | 39.4% | -4.5% | |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 44.4% | 39.4% | -5.0% | |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 45.5% | 39.4% | -6.1% | |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 46.5% | 39.4% | -7.1% | |
Over 2.5 Totals | BetfairBest price +5.3% | 2.40 | 41.7% | 39.7% | -2.0% |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 42.0% | 39.7% | -2.3% | |
| Marathonbet | 2.31 | 43.3% | 39.7% | -3.6% | |
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 43.3% | 39.7% | -3.6% | |
| Unibet | 2.23 | 44.8% | 39.7% | -5.1% | |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 48.8% | 39.7% | -9.1% | |
Under 2.5 Totals | Bet365Best price +1.8% | 1.53 | 65.4% | 60.3% | -5.1% |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 65.4% | 60.3% | -5.1% | |
| Unibet | 1.53 | 65.4% | 60.3% | -5.1% | |
| 1xBet | 1.53 | 65.4% | 60.3% | -5.1% | |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 66.7% | 60.3% | -6.4% | |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 71.4% | 60.3% | -11.1% | |
Yes BTTS | BetfairBest price +4.2% | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.2% |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 51.3% | 46.8% | -4.5% | |
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 51.3% | 46.8% | -4.5% | |
| BetVictor | 1.78 | 56.2% | 46.8% | -9.4% | |
No BTTS | 1xBetBest price +3.1% | 1.74 | 57.5% | 53.2% | -4.3% |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 57.8% | 53.2% | -4.6% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 58.5% | 53.2% | -5.3% | |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 63.7% | 53.2% | -10.5% | |
Draw or Away Double Chance | BetfairBest price +5.5% | 1.57 | 63.7% | 0.0% | -63.7% |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 65.4% | 0.0% | -65.4% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 67.1% | 0.0% | -67.1% | |
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 67.1% | 0.0% | -67.1% | |
| BetVictor | 1.47 | 68.0% | 0.0% | -68.0% | |
| Unibet | 1.38 | 72.5% | 0.0% | -72.5% | |
Home or Draw Double Chance | UnibetBest price +2.8% | 1.33 | 75.2% | 0.0% | -75.2% |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 75.2% | 0.0% | -75.2% | |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 76.9% | 0.0% | -76.9% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.30 | 76.9% | 0.0% | -76.9% | |
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 76.9% | 0.0% | -76.9% | |
| BetVictor | 1.20 | 83.3% | 0.0% | -83.3% | |
Home or Away Double Chance | BetfairBest price +3.8% | 1.33 | 75.2% | 0.0% | -75.2% |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 76.9% | 0.0% | -76.9% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.29 | 77.5% | 0.0% | -77.5% | |
| 1xBet | 1.29 | 77.5% | 0.0% | -77.5% | |
| Unibet | 1.28 | 78.1% | 0.0% | -78.1% | |
| BetVictor | 1.20 | 83.3% | 0.0% | -83.3% |
Model reasoning
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Fri, 28 Aug 2026 12:01 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
More predictions
Team hubs: Fountain Gate predictions · Mbeya City predictions
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.