3. Division - Girone 3
Finished
Medium risk

Gneist vs Førde

12Full time
Sat, Aug 15, 10:00 AM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 72/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk

BTTS Yes

Gneist (LLWLL) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.9 for Førde (LDDWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 72/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

72/100

Confidence
72/100

Strongest cover

12

78.8% probability

Risk classification

Medium

21.2% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

46 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

G win29.2%
Draw21.2%
F win49.6%

Goals

Over 1.589.3%
Over 2.573.5%
Under 2.526.5%

Both teams to score

Yes74.8%
No25.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Gneist

3/15 recent form points

LLWLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.81
Shots on target
Unavailable

Førde

8/15 recent form points

LDDWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/3 and Over 2.5 in 3/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
Aug 15, 06:01 AM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Førde 2-1 Gneist

2026-05-09T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Gneist 3-2 Førde

2025-09-20T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Førde 3-2 Gneist

2025-05-24T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Draw
1X2
Bet365Best price +3.9%4.2023.8%21.2%-2.6%
Betfair4.2023.8%21.2%-2.6%
Marathonbet4.1524.1%21.2%-2.9%
10Bet4.0025.0%21.2%-3.8%
Unibet3.9525.3%21.2%-4.1%
William Hill3.7526.7%21.2%-5.5%
Home
1X2
BetfairBest price +22.1%3.7526.7%29.2%+2.5%
Unibet3.4529.0%29.2%+0.2%
Bet3652.9034.5%29.2%-5.3%
William Hill2.8035.7%29.2%-6.5%
Marathonbet2.7736.1%29.2%-6.9%
10Bet2.7536.4%29.2%-7.2%
Away
1X2
MarathonbetBest price +6.3%1.9651.0%49.6%-1.4%
10Bet1.9551.3%49.6%-1.7%
William Hill1.9551.3%49.6%-1.7%
Bet3651.8554.1%49.6%-4.5%
Unibet1.6859.5%49.6%-9.9%
Betfair1.6759.9%49.6%-10.3%
Under 2.5
Totals
MarathonbetBest price +11.1%3.8825.8%26.5%+0.7%
Bet3653.5028.6%26.5%-2.1%
Unibet3.1032.3%26.5%-5.8%
Over 2.5
Totals
Bet365Best price +2.7%1.2878.1%73.5%-4.6%
Unibet1.2878.1%73.5%-4.6%
Marathonbet1.1884.7%73.5%-11.2%
No
BTTS
MarathonbetBest price +0.8%3.6627.3%25.2%-2.1%
William Hill3.6027.8%25.2%-2.6%
Yes
BTTS
William HillBest price +0.4%1.2282.0%74.8%-7.2%
Marathonbet1.2182.6%74.8%-7.8%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
BetfairBest price +11.2%2.0050.0%0.0%-50.0%
Unibet1.8454.3%0.0%-54.3%
Bet3651.8055.6%0.0%-55.6%
10Bet1.7557.1%0.0%-57.1%
William Hill1.7357.8%0.0%-57.8%
Marathonbet1.6759.9%0.0%-59.9%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
10BetBest price +6.6%1.3872.5%0.0%-72.5%
William Hill1.3673.5%0.0%-73.5%
Marathonbet1.3375.2%0.0%-75.2%
Bet3651.3076.9%0.0%-76.9%
Unibet1.2083.3%0.0%-83.3%
Betfair1.2083.3%0.0%-83.3%
Home or Away
Double Chance
William HillBest price +4.4%1.2282.0%0.0%-82.0%
Bet3651.1785.5%0.0%-85.5%
Betfair1.1785.5%0.0%-85.5%
10Bet1.1587.0%0.0%-87.0%
Marathonbet1.1587.0%0.0%-87.0%
Unibet1.1587.0%0.0%-87.0%

Model reasoning

Førde look more likely to come out on top, with a stronger overall record (8W 2D 6L versus Gneist’s 4W 1D 11L) and a better goal profile across the season (32 scored and 29 conceded for Førde, compared with 29 scored and 48 conceded for Gneist). That gap in defensive performance suggests Gneist may struggle to keep Førde from creating chances. The BTTS Yes lean is supported by the season goal rates and the matchup direction implied by the probabilities. Both teams have conceded enough to make scoring plausible for each side, and the model’s both teams to score probability is high at 74.8%. Even with Førde’s advantage, Gneist’s low clean-sheet count (1) points toward them being more likely to concede rather than shut out the opponent. Over 2.5 goals is also favored (73.5%), which fits a game where Førde can score while Gneist still finds goals often enough to keep both teams on the scoresheet. The recent form is mixed for both, but Førde’s latest run includes more positive results (LDDWW) than Gneist’s (LLWLL), which helps explain why the away win probability is the highest. With a medium risk level and confidence score of 72, the main uncertainty is how often Gneist can convert despite their defensive record and poor recent stretch. Still, the combined indicators for scoring on both sides and a likely goal total above 2.5 make BTTS Yes the most consistent angle from the provided stats.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-2

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 74.8%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

Team hubs: Gneist predictions · Førde predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.