Ural II vs Nosta
0–035′
AI prediction
Home Win
Confidence 79/100
Home Win
Ural II (DDLLL) project at 1.9 expected goals versus 1.2 for Nosta (WLDLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 79/100 confidence with low risk.
Confidence
79/100
Strongest cover
1X
82.1% probability
Risk classification
Low
24.4% draw weight
Value status
Pass
No qualified price edge
Market sample
3 sources
23 price observations
Full distribution
Market probabilities
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Evidence ledger
Ural II
2/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 1.55
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Nosta
7/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 0.80
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Matchup xG signal
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.
Price interpretation
Value read
No qualified edge at this snapshot
None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.
Provenance
Model card
- Version
- livewin-hybrid-v0.6
- Data source
- Licensed live data feed
- Statistics baseline
- 2026 season
- Odds timestamp
- Aug 16, 06:01 AM UTC
- Optional coverage
- H2H available · odds available
- Confidence
- Signal agreement score
- Risk
- Low · uncertainty remains
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.
Head-to-Head
Nosta 0-2 Ural II
2026-06-07T15:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Ural II 1-0 Nosta
2025-09-07T10:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Nosta 2-2 Ural II
2025-06-01T14:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Ural II 0-0 Nosta
2024-08-30T11:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Nosta 1-2 Ural II
2024-05-26T14:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Nosta 3-1 Ural II
2023-09-17T13:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Ural II 0-0 Nosta
2023-07-23T11:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Nosta 0-2 Ural II
2023-05-28T13:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Nosta 2-0 Ural II
2023-04-20T10:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Ural II 2-2 Nosta
2022-08-07T11:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Odds Comparison
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Away 1X2 | 1xBetBest price +1.5% | 4.88 | 20.5% | 17.9% | -2.6% |
| Dafabet | 4.80 | 20.8% | 17.9% | -2.9% | |
| Marathonbet | 4.75 | 21.1% | 17.9% | -3.2% | |
Draw 1X2 | DafabetBest price +0.7% | 3.60 | 27.8% | 24.4% | -3.4% |
| 1xBet | 3.58 | 27.9% | 24.4% | -3.5% | |
| Marathonbet | 3.55 | 28.2% | 24.4% | -3.8% | |
Home 1X2 | DafabetBest price +0.6% | 1.63 | 61.3% | 57.7% | -3.6% |
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 61.7% | 57.7% | -4.0% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 62.1% | 57.7% | -4.4% | |
Over 2.5 Totals | MarathonbetBest price | 1.86 | 53.8% | 50.2% | -3.6% |
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 53.8% | 50.2% | -3.6% | |
Under 2.5 Totals | MarathonbetBest price | 1.83 | 54.6% | 49.8% | -4.8% |
| 1xBet | 1.83 | 54.6% | 49.8% | -4.8% | |
No BTTS | 1xBetBest price +0.8% | 1.85 | 54.1% | 49.3% | -4.8% |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 54.9% | 49.3% | -5.6% | |
Yes BTTS | MarathonbetBest price | 1.82 | 54.9% | 50.7% | -4.2% |
| 1xBet | 1.82 | 54.9% | 50.7% | -4.2% | |
Draw or Away Double Chance | 1xBetBest price +0.5% | 2.06 | 48.5% | 0.0% | -48.5% |
| Marathonbet | 2.04 | 49.0% | 0.0% | -49.0% | |
Home or Away Double Chance | MarathonbetBest price | 1.21 | 82.6% | 0.0% | -82.6% |
| 1xBet | 1.21 | 82.6% | 0.0% | -82.6% | |
Home or Draw Double Chance | MarathonbetBest price | 1.11 | 90.1% | 0.0% | -90.1% |
| 1xBet | 1.11 | 90.1% | 0.0% | -90.1% |
Model reasoning
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Sun, 16 Aug 2026 06:34 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
More predictions
Team hubs: Ural II predictions · Nosta predictions
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.