Live

High risk

Dewa United vs Bhayangkara FC prediction

1–245′

Fri, Sep 11, 12:00 PMIndomilk Arena

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 55/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Dewa United (WWWLL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.1 for Bhayangkara FC (LLWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 55/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

55/100

Confidence

55/100

Strongest cover

75.9% probability

Risk classification

High

26.7% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

51 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

DU win49.2%

Draw26.7%

BF win24.1%

Goals

Over 1.575.1%

Over 2.549.2%

Under 2.550.8%

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%

No46.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Dewa United

9/15 recent form points

WWWLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.29
Shots on target: Unavailable

Bhayangkara FC

6/15 recent form points

LLWLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.56
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/6 and Over 2.5 in 2/6.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Sep 11, 10:57 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Dewa United 0-2 Bhayangkara FC

2026-03-01T14:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Bhayangkara FC 1-0 Dewa United

2026-01-05T09:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Bhayangkara FC 2-3 Dewa United

2024-03-16T14:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Dewa United 2-2 Bhayangkara FC

2023-09-15T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bhayangkara FC 1-1 Dewa United

2023-01-28T10:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Dewa United 2-0 Bhayangkara FC

2022-08-14T10:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	PinnacleBest price +7.5%	3.95	25.3%	24.1%	-1.2%
	1xBet	3.74	26.7%	24.1%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	3.66	27.3%	24.1%	-3.2%
	William Hill	3.60	27.8%	24.1%	-3.7%
	BetVictor	3.60	27.8%	24.1%	-3.7%
	Bet365	3.50	28.6%	24.1%	-4.5%
Draw 1X2	PinnacleBest price +4.2%	3.48	28.7%	26.7%	-2.0%
	Bet365	3.40	29.4%	26.7%	-2.7%
	BetVictor	3.40	29.4%	26.7%	-2.7%
	Marathonbet	3.28	30.5%	26.7%	-3.8%
	1xBet	3.28	30.5%	26.7%	-3.8%
	William Hill	3.20	31.3%	26.7%	-4.6%
Home 1X2	PinnacleBest price +2.4%	1.95	51.3%	49.2%	-2.1%
	William Hill	1.91	52.4%	49.2%	-3.2%
	BetVictor	1.91	52.4%	49.2%	-3.2%
	Bet365	1.90	52.6%	49.2%	-3.4%
	1xBet	1.89	52.9%	49.2%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	1.87	53.5%	49.2%	-4.3%
Over 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +3.8%	1.97	50.8%	49.2%	-1.6%
	Bet365	1.90	52.6%	49.2%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	1.88	53.2%	49.2%	-4.0%
	1xBet	1.88	53.2%	49.2%	-4.0%
	BetVictor	1.86	53.8%	49.2%	-4.6%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.3%	1.90	52.6%	50.8%	-1.8%
	Pinnacle	1.87	53.5%	50.8%	-2.7%
	Marathonbet	1.81	55.2%	50.8%	-4.4%
	BetVictor	1.81	55.2%	50.8%	-4.4%
	1xBet	1.81	55.2%	50.8%	-4.4%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +1.9%	2.00	50.0%	46.9%	-3.1%
	BetVictor	2.00	50.0%	46.9%	-3.1%
	1xBet	1.94	51.5%	46.9%	-4.6%
	Marathonbet	1.91	52.4%	46.9%	-5.5%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +0.3%	1.74	57.5%	53.1%	-4.4%
	1xBet	1.74	57.5%	53.1%	-4.4%
	William Hill	1.73	57.8%	53.1%	-4.7%
	BetVictor	1.73	57.8%	53.1%	-4.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +8.2%	1.95	51.3%	0.0%	-51.3%
	William Hill	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	BetVictor	1.78	56.2%	0.0%	-56.2%
	Marathonbet	1.74	57.5%	0.0%	-57.5%
	1xBet	1.74	57.5%	0.0%	-57.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.0%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	BetVictor	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	1xBet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.3%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	BetVictor	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
	1xBet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Dewa United vs Bhayangkara FC. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: no qualified value edge clears the fair-price threshold. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 11 Sep 2026 11:30 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Dewa United predictions · Bhayangkara FC predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.