1. Division
Pre-match
Low risk

Taraz vs Khan Tengri prediction

Fri, Sep 11, 01:00 PMCentral Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 78/100

Model verdict
Low risk

Home Win

Taraz (LDDWL) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.1 for Khan Tengri (LDWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 78/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

78/100

Confidence
78/100

Strongest cover

12

83.4% probability

Risk classification

Low

16.6% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

2 sources

20 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

T win64.9%
Draw16.6%
KT win18.5%

Goals

Over 1.578.8%
Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%

Both teams to score

Yes61.5%
No38.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Taraz

5/15 recent form points

LDDWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.29
Shots on target
Unavailable

Khan Tengri

7/15 recent form points

LDWWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.24
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/7 and Over 2.5 in 3/7.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
Sep 11, 08:48 AM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Khan Tengri 2-1 Taraz

2026-06-19T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Taraz 2-1 Khan Tengri

2025-08-22T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Khan Tengri 1-1 Taraz

2025-05-23T13:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Taraz 0-1 Khan Tengri

2024-07-17T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Khan Tengri 0-0 Taraz

2024-05-10T13:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Taraz 2-1 Khan Tengri

2023-08-17T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Khan Tengri 2-0 Taraz

2023-05-09T13:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Draw
1X2
MarathonbetBest price5.1519.4%16.6%-2.8%
1xBet5.1519.4%16.6%-2.8%
Away
1X2
1xBetBest price +1.5%4.6921.3%18.5%-2.8%
Marathonbet4.5522.0%18.5%-3.5%
Home
1X2
1xBetBest price +0.3%1.4469.4%64.9%-4.5%
Marathonbet1.4369.9%64.9%-5.0%
Under 2.5
Totals
MarathonbetBest price2.7836.0%33.1%-2.9%
1xBet2.7836.0%33.1%-2.9%
Over 2.5
Totals
MarathonbetBest price1.3474.6%66.9%-7.7%
1xBet1.3474.6%66.9%-7.7%
No
BTTS
1xBetBest price +1.0%2.4141.5%38.5%-3.0%
Marathonbet2.3642.4%38.5%-3.9%
Yes
BTTS
MarathonbetBest price1.4867.6%61.5%-6.1%
1xBet1.4867.6%61.5%-6.1%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
MarathonbetBest price2.4341.2%0.0%-41.2%
1xBet2.4341.2%0.0%-41.2%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
MarathonbetBest price1.1289.3%0.0%-89.3%
1xBet1.1289.3%0.0%-89.3%
Home or Away
Double Chance
MarathonbetBest price1.0991.7%0.0%-91.7%
1xBet1.0991.7%0.0%-91.7%

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Taraz vs Khan Tengri. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: no qualified value edge clears the fair-price threshold. Risk warning: Low risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 11 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Taraz predictions · Khan Tengri predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.