Pre-match

High risk

Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Negeri Sembilan prediction

Fri, Sep 11, 01:00 PMSultan Ibrahim Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 58/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Johor Darul Takzim FC (WDWWW) project at 3 expected goals versus 0.8 for Negeri Sembilan (DDDDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 58/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

58/100

Confidence

58/100

Strongest cover

97.0% probability

Risk classification

High

7.3% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

4 sources

23 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

JDT win89.7%

Draw7.3%

NS win3%

Goals

Over 1.589.3%

Over 2.582.5%

Under 2.517.5%

Both teams to score

Yes21.4%

No78.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Johor Darul Takzim FC

13/15 recent form points

WDWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 4.88
Shots on target: Unavailable

Negeri Sembilan

7/15 recent form points

DDDDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.63
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/10 and Over 2.5 in 7/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Sep 11, 10:30 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Negeri Sembilan 0-1 Johor Darul Takzim FC

2026-01-09T14:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Johor Darul Takzim FC 5-3 Negeri Sembilan

2025-08-12T14:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Negeri Sembilan 0-4 Johor Darul Takzim FC

2024-11-01T13:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3-1 Negeri Sembilan

2024-05-18T11:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Johor Darul Takzim FC 4-1 Negeri Sembilan

2023-09-23T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Negeri Sembilan 0-3 Johor Darul Takzim FC

2023-09-13T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2-0 Negeri Sembilan

2023-07-08T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Negeri Sembilan 0-7 Johor Darul Takzim FC

2023-03-06T14:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Johor Darul Takzim FC 5-0 Negeri Sembilan

2022-10-01T14:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Negeri Sembilan 0-1 Johor Darul Takzim FC

2022-05-11T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	Bet365Best price +51.9%	41.00	2.4%	3.0%	+0.6%
	1xBet	23.00	4.3%	3.0%	-1.3%
	BetVictor	17.00	5.9%	3.0%	-2.9%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +39.7%	17.00	5.9%	7.3%	+1.4%
	1xBet	13.00	7.7%	7.3%	-0.4%
	BetVictor	6.50	15.4%	7.3%	-8.1%
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +1.3%	1.04	96.2%	89.7%	-6.5%
	Bet365	1.03	97.1%	89.7%	-7.4%
	BetVictor	1.01	99.0%	89.7%	-9.3%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +12.4%	6.00	16.7%	17.5%	+0.8%
	1xBet	6.00	16.7%	17.5%	+0.8%
	Marathonbet	5.25	19.0%	17.5%	-1.5%
	BetVictor	4.10	24.4%	17.5%	-6.9%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.5%	1.11	90.1%	82.5%	-7.6%
	Marathonbet	1.09	91.7%	82.5%	-9.2%
	1xBet	1.08	92.6%	82.5%	-10.1%
	BetVictor	1.05	95.2%	82.5%	-12.7%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +52.0%	9.50	10.5%	21.4%	+10.9%
	1xBet	3.00	33.3%	21.4%	-11.9%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +13.7%	1.33	75.2%	78.6%	+3.4%
	Marathonbet	1.01	99.0%	78.6%	-20.4%
Draw or Away Double Chance	1xBet	8.40	11.9%	0.0%	-11.9%
Home or Away Double Chance	1xBet	1.01	99.0%	0.0%	-99.0%

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Negeri Sembilan. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: no qualified value edge clears the fair-price threshold. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 11 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Johor Darul Takzim FC predictions · Negeri Sembilan predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.