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Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen prediction

0–031′
Fri, Sep 11, 10:00 AM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 79/100

Model verdict
Low risk

Home Win

Daejeon Korail (LDLWW) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 0.9 for Ulsan Citizen (WLWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 79/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

79/100

Confidence
79/100

Strongest cover

1X

82.9% probability

Risk classification

Low

24.8% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

51 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

DK win58.1%
Draw24.8%
UC win17.1%

Goals

Over 1.569.6%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%

Both teams to score

Yes46.9%
No53.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Daejeon Korail

7/15 recent form points

LDLWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.48
Shots on target
Unavailable

Ulsan Citizen

9/15 recent form points

WLWWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.05
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
Sep 11, 08:28 AM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Ulsan Citizen 0-1 Daejeon Korail

2026-05-01T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Ulsan Citizen 1-2 Daejeon Korail

2025-07-05T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Daejeon Korail 3-0 Ulsan Citizen

2025-03-01T06:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Ulsan Citizen 1-1 Daejeon Korail

2024-09-28T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Daejeon Korail 1-1 Ulsan Citizen

2024-05-31T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Daejeon Korail 1-2 Ulsan Citizen

2023-07-21T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Ulsan Citizen 2-1 Daejeon Korail

2023-04-08T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Ulsan Citizen 0-0 Daejeon Korail

2022-06-18T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Daejeon Korail 2-1 Ulsan Citizen

2022-03-05T07:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Daejeon Korail 1-1 Ulsan Citizen

2021-09-24T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Away
1X2
PinnacleBest price +5.6%5.3118.8%17.1%-1.7%
1xBet5.2818.9%17.1%-1.8%
BetVictor5.2519.0%17.1%-1.9%
Marathonbet5.2019.2%17.1%-2.1%
William Hill4.8020.8%17.1%-3.7%
Bet3654.3323.1%17.1%-6.0%
Draw
1X2
Bet365Best price +5.7%3.7526.7%24.8%-1.9%
BetVictor3.6027.8%24.8%-3.0%
Pinnacle3.6027.8%24.8%-3.0%
Marathonbet3.5428.2%24.8%-3.4%
1xBet3.5428.2%24.8%-3.4%
William Hill3.2530.8%24.8%-6.0%
Home
1X2
William HillBest price +2.4%1.6560.6%58.1%-2.5%
Pinnacle1.6461.0%58.1%-2.9%
Bet3651.6261.7%58.1%-3.6%
BetVictor1.6062.5%58.1%-4.4%
1xBet1.5962.9%58.1%-4.8%
Marathonbet1.5763.7%58.1%-5.6%
Over 2.5
Totals
PinnacleBest price +2.9%2.0748.3%46.0%-2.3%
Bet3652.0548.8%46.0%-2.8%
Marathonbet1.9850.5%46.0%-4.5%
BetVictor1.9850.5%46.0%-4.5%
1xBet1.9850.5%46.0%-4.5%
Under 2.5
Totals
Bet365Best price +1.3%1.7557.1%54.0%-3.1%
Pinnacle1.7457.5%54.0%-3.5%
Marathonbet1.7258.1%54.0%-4.1%
1xBet1.7258.1%54.0%-4.1%
BetVictor1.7158.5%54.0%-4.5%
Yes
BTTS
BetVictorBest price +2.2%2.0050.0%46.9%-3.1%
Marathonbet1.9651.0%46.9%-4.1%
1xBet1.9651.0%46.9%-4.1%
William Hill1.9152.4%46.9%-5.5%
No
BTTS
William HillBest price +1.3%1.7557.1%53.1%-4.0%
BetVictor1.7357.8%53.1%-4.7%
1xBet1.7357.8%53.1%-4.7%
Marathonbet1.7058.8%53.1%-5.7%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
William HillBest price +1.2%2.1546.5%0.0%-46.5%
BetVictor2.1546.5%0.0%-46.5%
Marathonbet2.1147.4%0.0%-47.4%
1xBet2.1147.4%0.0%-47.4%
Bet3652.1047.6%0.0%-47.6%
Home or Away
Double Chance
William HillBest price +3.0%1.2580.0%0.0%-80.0%
Marathonbet1.2182.6%0.0%-82.6%
1xBet1.2182.6%0.0%-82.6%
Bet3651.2083.3%0.0%-83.3%
BetVictor1.2083.3%0.0%-83.3%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
BetVictorBest price +2.5%1.1587.0%0.0%-87.0%
William Hill1.1487.7%0.0%-87.7%
Bet3651.1487.7%0.0%-87.7%
Marathonbet1.0991.7%0.0%-91.7%
1xBet1.0991.7%0.0%-91.7%

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: no qualified value edge clears the fair-price threshold. Risk warning: Low risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 11 Sep 2026 09:30 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Daejeon Korail predictions · Ulsan Citizen predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.