Pre-match

High risk

Ezra vs Shan United prediction

Fri, Sep 11, 11:30 AMThuwunna Stadium

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 39/100

Model verdict

High risk

Away Win

Ezra (LL) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.1 for Shan United (LLLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 39/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

39/100

Confidence

39/100

Strongest cover

89.0% probability

Risk classification

High

17.3% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

4 sources

34 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

E win11%

Draw17.3%

SU win71.7%

Goals

Over 1.571.9%

Over 2.558.7%

Under 2.541.3%

Both teams to score

Yes47.8%

No52.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Ezra

0/6 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Shan United

0/15 recent form points

LLLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.86
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 1/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Sep 11, 09:02 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Shan United 1-0 Ezra

2025-08-15T13:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Ezra 1-2 Shan United

2025-08-09T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +11.8%	9.10	11.0%	11.0%	+0.0%
	Marathonbet	8.70	11.5%	11.0%	-0.5%
	William Hill	8.50	11.8%	11.0%	-0.8%
	Bet365	6.25	16.0%	11.0%	-5.0%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +8.9%	5.50	18.2%	17.3%	-0.9%
	Marathonbet	5.05	19.8%	17.3%	-2.5%
	1xBet	5.05	19.8%	17.3%	-2.5%
	William Hill	4.60	21.7%	17.3%	-4.4%
Away 1X2	Bet365Best price +2.0%	1.30	76.9%	71.7%	-5.2%
	William Hill	1.29	77.5%	71.7%	-5.8%
	1xBet	1.26	79.4%	71.7%	-7.7%
	Marathonbet	1.25	80.0%	71.7%	-8.3%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.9%	2.35	42.6%	41.3%	-1.3%
	Marathonbet	2.25	44.4%	41.3%	-3.1%
	1xBet	2.25	44.4%	41.3%	-3.1%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +0.4%	1.57	63.7%	58.7%	-5.0%
	Marathonbet	1.56	64.1%	58.7%	-5.4%
	1xBet	1.56	64.1%	58.7%	-5.4%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +0.2%	1.92	52.1%	47.8%	-4.3%
	1xBet	1.92	52.1%	47.8%	-4.3%
	William Hill	1.91	52.4%	47.8%	-4.6%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +0.4%	1.75	57.1%	52.2%	-4.9%
	1xBet	1.75	57.1%	52.2%	-4.9%
	Marathonbet	1.73	57.8%	52.2%	-5.6%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.4%	3.25	30.8%	0.0%	-30.8%
	Marathonbet	3.22	31.1%	0.0%	-31.1%
	1xBet	3.22	31.1%	0.0%	-31.1%
	Bet365	3.00	33.3%	0.0%	-33.3%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.8%	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Bet365	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%
	Marathonbet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
	1xBet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +0.9%	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%
	William Hill	1.06	94.3%	0.0%	-94.3%

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Away Win lean for Ezra vs Shan United. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: no qualified value edge clears the fair-price threshold. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 11 Sep 2026 10:02 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Ezra predictions · Shan United predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.