Live

Medium risk

Canberra Juventus vs Queanbeyan City

0–059′

Sun, Aug 16, 06:30 AMGungahlin Enclosed Oval

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 65/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Canberra Juventus (WLLLW) project at 1.9 expected goals versus 1.6 for Queanbeyan City (DDLWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 65/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

65/100

Confidence

65/100

Strongest cover

77.8% probability

Risk classification

Medium

22.2% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

45 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

CJ win30.7%

Draw22.2%

QC win47.1%

Goals

Over 1.586.8%

Over 2.570.7%

Under 2.529.3%

Both teams to score

Yes70.5%

No29.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Canberra Juventus

6/15 recent form points

WLLLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.11
Shots on target: Unavailable

Queanbeyan City

8/15 recent form points

DDLWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.17
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/4 and Over 2.5 in 3/4.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 16, 06:01 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Queanbeyan City 3-1 Canberra Juventus

2026-05-23T07:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Queanbeyan City 6-1 Canberra Juventus

2024-07-20T07:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Canberra Juventus 1-4 Queanbeyan City

2024-05-25T07:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Queanbeyan City 2-0 Canberra Juventus

2024-05-22T10:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +8.5%	4.20	23.8%	22.2%	-1.6%
	Betfair	4.20	23.8%	22.2%	-1.6%
	Marathonbet	3.98	25.1%	22.2%	-2.9%
	Unibet	3.75	26.7%	22.2%	-4.5%
	BetVictor	3.60	27.8%	22.2%	-5.6%
	William Hill	3.50	28.6%	22.2%	-6.4%
Home 1X2	BetfairBest price +10.8%	3.25	30.8%	30.7%	-0.1%
	Marathonbet	3.14	31.8%	30.7%	-1.1%
	William Hill	3.00	33.3%	30.7%	-2.6%
	Bet365	2.90	34.5%	30.7%	-3.8%
	BetVictor	2.88	34.7%	30.7%	-4.0%
	Unibet	2.43	41.2%	30.7%	-10.5%
Away 1X2	UnibetBest price +17.6%	2.23	44.8%	47.1%	+2.3%
	William Hill	1.91	52.4%	47.1%	-5.3%
	Bet365	1.85	54.1%	47.1%	-7.0%
	Marathonbet	1.84	54.3%	47.1%	-7.2%
	Betfair	1.80	55.6%	47.1%	-8.5%
	BetVictor	1.75	57.1%	47.1%	-10.0%
Under 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +7.1%	3.30	30.3%	29.3%	-1.0%
	Marathonbet	3.28	30.5%	29.3%	-1.2%
	Bet365	3.00	33.3%	29.3%	-4.0%
	BetVictor	2.75	36.4%	29.3%	-7.1%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +7.5%	1.36	73.5%	70.7%	-2.8%
	Marathonbet	1.25	80.0%	70.7%	-9.3%
	Unibet	1.25	80.0%	70.7%	-9.3%
	BetVictor	1.20	83.3%	70.7%	-12.6%
No BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +7.6%	3.20	31.3%	29.5%	-1.8%
	BetVictor	2.75	36.4%	29.5%	-6.9%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +2.8%	1.27	78.7%	70.5%	-8.2%
	BetVictor	1.20	83.3%	70.5%	-12.8%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +8.7%	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	Marathonbet	1.76	56.8%	0.0%	-56.8%
	BetVictor	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	Bet365	1.62	61.7%	0.0%	-61.7%
	Unibet	1.48	67.6%	0.0%	-67.6%
Draw or Away Double Chance	UnibetBest price +6.5%	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Bet365	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	BetVictor	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Marathonbet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +2.1%	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	BetVictor	1.06	94.3%	0.0%	-94.3%

Model reasoning

Queanbeyan City look slightly more likely to win, with 47.1% for the away result versus 30.7% for Canberra Juventus. Both teams have solid scoring profiles across the season, with Canberra Juventus scoring 38 in 18 and Queanbeyan City scoring 39 in 18, which supports a game where goals are likely rather than a low-scoring stalemate. Defensively, both sides concede at a moderate rate: Canberra Juventus have conceded 35 in 18, while Queanbeyan City have conceded 27 in 18. Clean sheets are present for both teams (6 for Canberra, 5 for Queanbeyan), but the overall concession numbers suggest there is enough vulnerability for multiple goals to be scored. The probabilities align with this picture, with over 2.5 goals at 70.7% and both teams to score at 70.5%. Recent form is mixed for both, but the season-long goal totals and concession rates are the stronger signals here, keeping the over 2.5 angle as the most supported outcome. With a 65 confidence score and medium risk, the main uncertainty is that clean sheets do happen for both teams, which can occasionally cap scoring. Still, the combination of similar scoring output and non-trivial goals conceded makes over 2.5 the more reasonable call.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Sun, 16 Aug 2026 05:02 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Canberra Juventus predictions · Queanbeyan City predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.