Pre-match

Medium risk

Burnley vs Derby prediction

Sat, Sep 19, 02:00 PMTurf Moor

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 63/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Burnley (LLDLD) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.3 for Derby (DLWLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 63/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

63/100

Confidence

63/100

Strongest cover

73.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.4% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

B win42.9%

Draw26.4%

D win30.7%

Goals

Over 1.577.8%

Over 2.553.4%

Under 2.546.6%

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%

No42.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Burnley

2/15 recent form points

LLDLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.17
Shots on target: Unavailable

Derby

4/15 recent form points

DLWLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.83
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Burnley 2-1 Derby

2025-08-26T20:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Derby 0-0 Burnley

2025-04-08T20:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Burnley 0-0 Derby

2024-12-10T20:45:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Burnley 4-1 Derby

2016-01-25T20:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Derby 0-0 Burnley

2015-09-21T20:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Burnley 2-0 Derby

2014-03-01T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Derby 0-3 Burnley

2013-08-31T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Burnley 2-0 Derby

2012-12-26T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Derby 1-2 Burnley

2012-09-22T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Burnley 0-0 Derby

2012-01-21T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Burnley vs Derby. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

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Team hubs: Burnley predictions · Derby predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.