Finished

High risk

Burgess Hill Town vs Whyteleafe

3–0Full time

Tue, Aug 11, 06:45 PM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 35/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Burgess Hill Town (WWLLW) project at 1.9 expected goals versus 1.2 for Whyteleafe (L). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

35/100

Confidence

35/100

Strongest cover

76.0% probability

Risk classification

High

24.0% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

47 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

BHT win37.9%

Draw24%

W win38.1%

Goals

Over 1.582.7%

Over 2.557.5%

Under 2.542.5%

Both teams to score

Yes60.5%

No39.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Burgess Hill Town

9/15 recent form points

WWLLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.81
Shots on target: Unavailable

Whyteleafe

0/3 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 2/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 11, 06:01 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Whyteleafe 5-0 Burgess Hill Town

2020-10-27T20:45:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Whyteleafe 4-3 Burgess Hill Town

2019-10-29T20:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	PinnacleBest price +5.9%	3.86	25.9%	24.0%	-1.9%
	Marathonbet	3.68	27.2%	24.0%	-3.2%
	1xBet	3.68	27.2%	24.0%	-3.2%
	Bet365	3.60	27.8%	24.0%	-3.8%
	10Bet	3.55	28.2%	24.0%	-4.2%
	Betfair	3.50	28.6%	24.0%	-4.6%
Home 1X2	PinnacleBest price +7.8%	2.66	37.6%	37.9%	+0.3%
	Betfair	2.50	40.0%	37.9%	-2.1%
	Marathonbet	2.43	41.2%	37.9%	-3.3%
	1xBet	2.43	41.2%	37.9%	-3.3%
	10Bet	2.40	41.7%	37.9%	-3.8%
	Bet365	2.38	42.0%	37.9%	-4.1%
Away 1X2	10BetBest price +3.4%	2.40	41.7%	38.1%	-3.6%
	Bet365	2.38	42.0%	38.1%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	2.33	42.9%	38.1%	-4.8%
	1xBet	2.33	42.9%	38.1%	-4.8%
	Betfair	2.30	43.5%	38.1%	-5.4%
	Pinnacle	2.19	45.7%	38.1%	-7.6%
Under 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +2.6%	2.22	45.0%	42.5%	-2.5%
	Bet365	2.20	45.5%	42.5%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	2.15	46.5%	42.5%	-4.0%
	1xBet	2.15	46.5%	42.5%	-4.0%
	10Bet	2.10	47.6%	42.5%	-5.1%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.4%	1.65	60.6%	57.5%	-3.1%
	Pinnacle	1.62	61.7%	57.5%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	1.61	62.1%	57.5%	-4.6%
	1xBet	1.61	62.1%	57.5%	-4.6%
	10Bet	1.57	63.7%	57.5%	-6.2%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +1.1%	2.34	42.7%	39.5%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	2.29	43.7%	39.5%	-4.2%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price	1.51	66.2%	60.5%	-5.7%
	1xBet	1.51	66.2%	60.5%	-5.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +2.4%	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	10Bet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Bet365	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Marathonbet	1.47	68.0%	0.0%	-68.0%
	1xBet	1.47	68.0%	0.0%	-68.0%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +2.7%	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Bet365	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Marathonbet	1.43	69.9%	0.0%	-69.9%
	1xBet	1.43	69.9%	0.0%	-69.9%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +3.6%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
	1xBet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
	10Bet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%

Model reasoning

Burgess Hill Town have a fairly even home record with 20 wins and 7 draws from 42 matches, and their goal numbers are close to balanced at 76 scored and 81 conceded. They also have a low clean-sheet count (5), which suggests they are not consistently preventing goals at home. Whyteleafe’s away sample here is extremely small, with only 1 match played and 0 goals scored while conceding 2. Even so, that match still indicates they can be involved in a game with goals, and their lack of clean sheets (0) aligns with the idea that both teams may score. The overall goal indicators point toward a match with goals: over 2.5 goals is listed at 57.5%, and both teams to score is 60.5%. With BTTS Yes as the lean, the main uncertainty is Whyteleafe’s limited data (only one match), which is why the confidence is relatively low and the risk is high. So, BTTS Yes looks plausible given Burgess Hill Town’s tendency to concede and the match-level goal probabilities, but the away team’s small sample size makes it harder to be confident.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-0

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 60.5%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.