J1 League
Finished
Medium risk

Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka

30Full time
Sat, Aug 15, 10:00 AMBest Denki Stadium

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 69/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk

BTTS Yes

Avispa Fukuoka (WLLDW) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.5 for Cerezo Osaka (WWWDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 69/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

69/100

Confidence
69/100

Strongest cover

12

74.0% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.0% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AF win32.4%
Draw26%
CO win41.6%

Goals

Over 1.578.7%
Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%

Both teams to score

Yes58.6%
No41.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Avispa Fukuoka

7/15 recent form points

WLLDW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.25
Shots on target
Unavailable

Cerezo Osaka

13/15 recent form points

WWWDW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.75
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Avispa Fukuoka 3-0 Cerezo Osaka

2026-08-15T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Avispa Fukuoka

2026-05-03T08:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Avispa Fukuoka 0-2 Cerezo Osaka

2026-02-15T07:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Avispa Fukuoka 2-4 Cerezo Osaka

2025-09-13T11:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Cerezo Osaka 2-0 Avispa Fukuoka

2025-05-24T08:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka

2024-11-09T07:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Avispa Fukuoka 0-3 Cerezo Osaka

2024-05-18T09:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Cerezo Osaka 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka

2023-06-30T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 Cerezo Osaka

2023-02-25T07:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Cerezo Osaka 2-0 Avispa Fukuoka

2022-07-30T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Cerezo Osaka look slightly more likely to take points, with a stronger overall record away (12W 1D 7L) and better goal balance (35 scored, 24 conceded) than Avispa Fukuoka at home (25 scored, 34 conceded). That defensive edge for Cerezo is also reflected in more clean sheets overall (5 vs 2). Even so, Avispa’s home profile suggests they can still contribute in matches, since they’ve scored 25 goals across 20 games and their recent run includes results like WLLDW rather than being consistently shut out. Cerezo’s away form is steadier as well (WWWDW), which supports the idea that both sides may get chances rather than one team dominating without reply. The both teams to score signal is relatively strong here, with the provided probability at 58.6% and a medium risk level. Over 2.5 goals is also more likely than not at 54.6%, which aligns with a game where at least one side scores more than once or both teams trade goals. So BTTS Yes fits best among the listed outcomes, with the confidence score at 69, but it’s not a lock given the close draw likelihood (26.0%) and the fact that Avispa’s home record includes 11 losses.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-0

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 58.6% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.3135 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:31 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Avispa Fukuoka predictions · Cerezo Osaka predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.