OFC Champions League
Finished
High risk

Auckland City vs Rewa

3–1Full time
Wed, Aug 19, 03:00 AMGovind Park

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 37/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

Auckland City (WWDWW) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 0.8 for Rewa (LLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 37/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

37/100

Confidence
37/100

Strongest cover

1X

88.4% probability

Risk classification

High

20.0% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AC win68.4%
Draw20%
R win11.6%

Goals

Over 1.572.4%
Over 2.546.2%
Under 2.553.8%

Both teams to score

Yes44.9%
No55.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Auckland City

13/15 recent form points

WWDWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.60
Shots on target
Unavailable

Rewa

1/9 recent form points

LLD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/3 and Over 2.5 in 2/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Rewa 1-1 Auckland City

2025-04-05T06:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Rewa 2-2 Auckland City

2024-05-12T00:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Rewa 0-3 Auckland City

2022-08-08T02:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Auckland City at home have been very strong defensively in this sample, conceding just 1 goal across 5 matches and keeping four clean sheets. Their recent form is also solid with four wins and one draw in the listed results, which supports the higher home-win probability. Rewa’s away record here is weaker, with 0 wins and 2 losses from 3 matches, and they have scored 3 while conceding 6. They also have no clean sheets in this set, so they may struggle to limit Auckland City’s scoring chances. The market-style probabilities lean toward Auckland City winning (68.4%) rather than drawing (20.0%) or Rewa winning (11.6%). However, the overall confidence is moderate-to-low (confidenceScore 37, riskLevel High), and the goal indicators are close to a coin flip, with over 2.5 goals at 46.2% and both teams to score at 44.9%, suggesting the margin and game flow are less certain than the home advantage.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 68.4% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.0567 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:07 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Auckland City predictions · Rewa predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.