Finished

High risk

Alvechurch vs Worcester City

3–1Full time

Tue, Aug 11, 06:45 PM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 53/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Alvechurch (WDWLD) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.2 for Worcester City (DWLDD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 53/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

53/100

Confidence

53/100

Strongest cover

72.5% probability

Risk classification

High

27.5% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

50 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

A win39.4%

Draw27.5%

WC win33.1%

Goals

Over 1.572.6%

Over 2.548.1%

Under 2.551.9%

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%

No46.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Alvechurch

8/15 recent form points

WDWLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.17
Shots on target: Unavailable

Worcester City

6/15 recent form points

DWLDD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.52
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/3 and Over 2.5 in 0/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 11, 06:01 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Alvechurch 2-0 Worcester City

2025-11-25T20:45:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Alvechurch 0-0 Worcester City

2025-10-25T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Worcester City 0-0 Alvechurch

2025-09-23T20:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +2.9%	3.30	30.3%	27.5%	-2.8%
	Betfair	3.30	30.3%	27.5%	-2.8%
	10Bet	3.25	30.8%	27.5%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	3.20	31.3%	27.5%	-3.8%
	Unibet	3.20	31.3%	27.5%	-3.8%
	William Hill	3.00	33.3%	27.5%	-5.8%
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +5.5%	2.86	35.0%	33.1%	-1.9%
	Unibet	2.85	35.1%	33.1%	-2.0%
	William Hill	2.80	35.7%	33.1%	-2.6%
	10Bet	2.75	36.4%	33.1%	-3.3%
	Bet365	2.62	38.2%	33.1%	-5.1%
	Betfair	2.38	42.0%	33.1%	-8.9%
Home 1X2	BetfairBest price +14.3%	2.63	38.0%	39.4%	+1.4%
	Bet365	2.30	43.5%	39.4%	-4.1%
	William Hill	2.25	44.4%	39.4%	-5.0%
	Marathonbet	2.22	45.0%	39.4%	-5.6%
	10Bet	2.20	45.5%	39.4%	-6.1%
	Unibet	2.20	45.5%	39.4%	-6.1%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.2%	1.95	51.3%	48.1%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	1.92	52.1%	48.1%	-4.0%
	Unibet	1.91	52.4%	48.1%	-4.3%
	10Bet	1.85	54.1%	48.1%	-6.0%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +4.2%	1.85	54.1%	51.9%	-2.2%
	Marathonbet	1.77	56.5%	51.9%	-4.6%
	10Bet	1.75	57.1%	51.9%	-5.2%
	Unibet	1.73	57.8%	51.9%	-5.9%
No BTTS	UnibetBest price +0.3%	1.96	51.0%	46.9%	-4.1%
	William Hill	1.95	51.3%	46.9%	-4.4%
	Marathonbet	1.95	51.3%	46.9%	-4.4%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +0.6%	1.73	57.8%	53.1%	-4.7%
	Unibet	1.72	58.1%	53.1%	-5.0%
	Marathonbet	1.71	58.5%	53.1%	-5.4%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +4.4%	1.57	63.7%	0.0%	-63.7%
	William Hill	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	Marathonbet	1.52	65.8%	0.0%	-65.8%
	Bet365	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Unibet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Betfair	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +10.2%	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Bet365	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	William Hill	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Marathonbet	1.32	75.8%	0.0%	-75.8%
	10Bet	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Unibet	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.0%	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Marathonbet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Unibet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	10Bet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%

Model reasoning

Alvechurch have scored 49 goals and conceded 55 across 42 matches, which suggests they are capable of finding goals but also allow chances at a fairly steady rate. Worcester City’s 64 goals scored and 44 conceded indicate they are more productive going forward and slightly more solid defensively than Alvechurch. The recent form leans toward a match where both sides can contribute. Alvechurch’s run includes multiple draws and only one win in their last five results (WDWLD), while Worcester City’s last five shows a mix of results with two wins and several draws/losses (DWLDD). That pattern fits a game where scoring is plausible for both teams rather than one-sided control. With both teams to score priced at 53.1% and over 2.5 goals at 48.1%, the overall profile points to a fairly even contest that could produce goals on both ends, but not with strong confidence. The home win and away win probabilities are close (39.4% vs 33.1%), which also supports the idea that neither side is clearly dominant. Given the moderate edge for BTTS Yes and the relatively low confidence score (53) alongside a high risk level, the bet looks more like a reasonable lean than a strong conviction.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-1

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 53.1%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.