Finished

High risk

Alfreton Town vs Gainsborough Trinity

2–1Full time

Tue, Aug 11, 06:45 PM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 38/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Alfreton Town (L) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.2 for Gainsborough Trinity (LWLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 38/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

38/100

Confidence

38/100

Strongest cover

72.7% probability

Risk classification

High

27.3% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AT win32.5%

Draw27.3%

GT win40.2%

Goals

Over 1.571.1%

Over 2.548.2%

Under 2.551.8%

Both teams to score

Yes53.7%

No46.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Alfreton Town

0/3 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Gainsborough Trinity

3/15 recent form points

LWLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.25
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/3 and Over 2.5 in 2/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 11, 06:01 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Gainsborough Trinity 1-2 Alfreton Town

2025-11-18T20:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Alfreton Town 4-1 Gainsborough Trinity

2016-11-30T20:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Gainsborough Trinity 0-0 Alfreton Town

2016-11-26T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +5.9%	3.40	29.4%	27.3%	-2.1%
	10Bet	3.30	30.3%	27.3%	-3.0%
	Betfair	3.30	30.3%	27.3%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	3.22	31.1%	27.3%	-3.8%
	Unibet	3.05	32.8%	27.3%	-5.5%
	William Hill	3.00	33.3%	27.3%	-6.0%
Home 1X2	William HillBest price +2.6%	2.80	35.7%	32.5%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	2.76	36.2%	32.5%	-3.7%
	10Bet	2.75	36.4%	32.5%	-3.9%
	Unibet	2.75	36.4%	32.5%	-3.9%
	Betfair	2.70	37.0%	32.5%	-4.5%
	Bet365	2.62	38.2%	32.5%	-5.7%
Away 1X2	William HillBest price +2.6%	2.30	43.5%	40.2%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	2.27	44.1%	40.2%	-3.9%
	Betfair	2.25	44.4%	40.2%	-4.2%
	Unibet	2.23	44.8%	40.2%	-4.6%
	10Bet	2.20	45.5%	40.2%	-5.3%
	Bet365	2.20	45.5%	40.2%	-5.3%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.5%	1.95	51.3%	48.2%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	1.93	51.8%	48.2%	-3.6%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	48.2%	-4.2%
	Unibet	1.87	53.5%	48.2%	-5.3%
	10Bet	1.85	54.1%	48.2%	-5.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.7%	1.85	54.1%	51.8%	-2.3%
	Betfair	1.80	55.6%	51.8%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	1.76	56.8%	51.8%	-5.0%
	Unibet	1.76	56.8%	51.8%	-5.0%
	10Bet	1.75	57.1%	51.8%	-5.3%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +5.3%	2.10	47.6%	46.3%	-1.3%
	Unibet	2.00	50.0%	46.3%	-3.7%
	William Hill	1.95	51.3%	46.3%	-5.0%
	Marathonbet	1.93	51.8%	46.3%	-5.5%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +2.6%	1.75	57.1%	53.7%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	1.72	58.1%	53.7%	-4.4%
	Unibet	1.70	58.8%	53.7%	-5.1%
	Betfair	1.65	60.6%	53.7%	-6.9%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +2.6%	1.55	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5%
	William Hill	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	Betfair	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	10Bet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Marathonbet	1.49	67.1%	0.0%	-67.1%
	Unibet	1.46	68.5%	0.0%	-68.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +2.4%	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Bet365	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Betfair	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	William Hill	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Marathonbet	1.34	74.6%	0.0%	-74.6%
	Unibet	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.0%	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Unibet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	10Bet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%

Model reasoning

Gainsborough Trinity’s overall record and goal numbers suggest they can compete in this matchup, with 50 goals scored and 45 conceded across 40 matches. Their away-side profile includes 15 clean sheets, which indicates they are capable of keeping games controlled, even if their recent form is mixed. Alfreton Town’s sample is extremely small so far, with one home match resulting in a loss and no goals scored (0 for, 1 against). That makes their attacking reliability harder to gauge, but it also means they may still be in a phase where scoring is possible if the game opens up. The both teams to score lean is supported by the probabilities provided, with BTTS Yes at 53.7%. Over 2.5 goals is also slightly favored at 48.2%, which aligns with a scenario where chances exist for both sides rather than a tight, one-sided outcome. With confidence at 38 and risk marked High, the main uncertainty is Alfreton’s limited match data and Gainsborough’s recent form (LWLLL), which could reduce scoring frequency. Still, the matchup outlook is marginally more consistent with BTTS Yes than BTTS No.

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-1

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 53.7%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.