Finished

High risk

Zenit vs Dynamo

3–0Full time

Sun, Aug 16, 11:30 AMGazprom Arena

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 57/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Zenit (DWWWW) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 0.9 for Dynamo (LWDWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 57/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

57/100

Confidence

57/100

Strongest cover

84.2% probability

Risk classification

High

21.6% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

5 sources

36 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

Z win62.6%

Draw21.6%

D win15.8%

Goals

Over 1.576.2%

Over 2.554.6%

Under 2.545.4%

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%

No47.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Zenit

13/15 recent form points

DWWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.77
Shots on target: Unavailable

Dynamo

10/15 recent form points

LWDWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.70
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 16, 09:51 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Dynamo 1-3 Zenit

2026-03-22T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Zenit 2-1 Dynamo

2026-02-03T13:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Dynamo 0-1 Zenit

2025-11-27T18:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Zenit 1-3 Dynamo

2025-11-05T18:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Zenit 2-1 Dynamo

2025-10-26T15:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Dynamo 1-1 Zenit

2025-04-26T13:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Zenit 1-0 Dynamo

2024-08-10T16:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Dinamo Moscow 1-0 Zenit Saint Petersburg

2024-04-28T18:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Zenit Saint Petersburg 2-0 Dinamo Moscow

2024-03-13T18:15:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Dinamo Moscow 1-0 Zenit Saint Petersburg

2023-11-29T16:15:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +10.0%	6.20	16.1%	15.8%	-0.3%
	Marathonbet	6.05	16.5%	15.8%	-0.7%
	Pinnacle	5.92	16.9%	15.8%	-1.1%
	Dafabet	5.60	17.9%	15.8%	-2.1%
	SBO	4.42	22.6%	15.8%	-6.8%
Draw 1X2	1xBetBest price +5.3%	4.44	22.5%	21.6%	-0.9%
	Pinnacle	4.43	22.6%	21.6%	-1.0%
	Marathonbet	4.33	23.1%	21.6%	-1.5%
	Dafabet	4.30	23.3%	21.6%	-1.7%
	SBO	3.58	27.9%	21.6%	-6.3%
Home 1X2	SBOBest price +1.7%	1.60	62.5%	62.6%	+0.1%
	1xBet	1.59	62.9%	62.6%	-0.3%
	Dafabet	1.57	63.7%	62.6%	-1.1%
	Pinnacle	1.56	64.1%	62.6%	-1.5%
	Marathonbet	1.55	64.5%	62.6%	-1.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	1xBetBest price +1.9%	2.17	46.1%	45.4%	-0.7%
	Pinnacle	2.14	46.7%	45.4%	-1.3%
	SBO	2.11	47.4%	45.4%	-2.0%
	Marathonbet	2.10	47.6%	45.4%	-2.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	1xBetBest price +2.4%	1.80	55.6%	54.6%	-1.0%
	Pinnacle	1.75	57.1%	54.6%	-2.5%
	Marathonbet	1.74	57.5%	54.6%	-2.9%
	SBO	1.74	57.5%	54.6%	-2.9%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +0.5%	1.95	51.3%	47.9%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	1.93	51.8%	47.9%	-3.9%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price	1.78	56.2%	52.1%	-4.1%
	1xBet	1.78	56.2%	52.1%	-4.1%
Draw or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price +6.3%	2.53	39.5%	0.0%	-39.5%
	1xBet	2.52	39.7%	0.0%	-39.7%
	SBO	2.09	47.8%	0.0%	-47.8%
Home or Away Double Chance	1xBetBest price +1.4%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	SBO	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
Home or Draw Double Chance	1xBetBest price +1.5%	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	Marathonbet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	SBO	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%

Model reasoning

Zenit at home look stronger overall, with a 20W 8D 2L record and a strong goal profile of 53 scored versus 19 conceded. They also have 15 clean sheets, which suggests they can control games defensively, and their very recent form is notably positive with DWWWW. Dynamo’s away record is less convincing, with 12W 9D 9L and a weaker defensive output of 40 conceded. Their recent form is mixed but includes some wins, yet they’ve been more prone to dropping points and conceding compared with Zenit’s home side. The goal-related probabilities are fairly balanced, with over 2.5 goals at 54.6% and both teams to score at 52.1%. That aligns with Zenit’s ability to win while still leaving room for Dynamo to find goals, even if Zenit’s clean-sheet rate makes a shutout plausible. Overall, the home win lean fits the gap in records and goals conceded, but the confidence is only moderate (57) and the risk is high, reflecting the relatively close scoring indicators rather than a clear, one-sided goal expectation.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 62.3%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.