Ekstraklasa
Finished
High risk

Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw

21Full time
Sat, Aug 15, 12:45 PMKGHM Zaglebie Arena

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 47/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

Zaglebie Lubin (LDWLL) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.1 for Slask Wroclaw (LWDLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 47/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

47/100

Confidence
47/100

Strongest cover

1X

78.8% probability

Risk classification

High

24.5% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

ZL win54.3%
Draw24.5%
SW win21.2%

Goals

Over 1.575.8%
Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Zaglebie Lubin

4/15 recent form points

LDWLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.32
Shots on target
Unavailable

Slask Wroclaw

5/15 recent form points

LWDLD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.40
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 8/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Slask Wroclaw

2026-08-15T14:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Slask Wroclaw 2-2 Zaglebie Lubin

2026-01-31T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin

2025-05-03T17:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Zaglebie Lubin 3-0 Slask Wroclaw

2024-11-04T20:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Slask Wroclaw

2023-12-15T20:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Slask Wroclaw 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin

2023-07-29T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Slask Wroclaw 0-3 Zaglebie Lubin

2023-01-28T20:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Slask Wroclaw

2022-07-15T20:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin

2022-02-27T17:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Zaglebie Lubin 1-3 Slask Wroclaw

2021-08-29T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Zaglebie Lubin look slightly more likely to win at home, with a 13W 9D 12L record and a positive goal difference profile from 45 scored versus 38 conceded. Their recent form is mixed but includes a win in the sequence shown (LDWLL), which supports the idea they can edge a close contest. Slask Wroclaw’s away sample provided is small (5 matches) and their results are less convincing overall, with 1W 2D 2L and 7 goals scored versus 8 conceded. Their recent form is also mixed (LWDLD), suggesting they can compete but may struggle to consistently convert chances on the road. The match also leans toward goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50.5% and both teams to score at 53.4%. That aligns with Zaglebie’s 45 goals and Slask’s 7 away goals, while the relatively modest defensive records (38 conceded for Zaglebie, 8 conceded for Slask) keep the game from looking one-sided. Given the probabilities are close and Slask’s away dataset is limited, the home win call is plausible but not strong, reflected by the 47 confidence score and high risk level. A draw remains a meaningful alternative at 24.5%.

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 50.8% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1473 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Fri, 14 Aug 2026 19:06 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Zaglebie Lubin predictions · Slask Wroclaw predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.