Pre-match

Medium risk

Torpedo Moskva vs Spartak Kostroma

Fri, Aug 21, 04:30 PMArena Khimki

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 62/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Torpedo Moskva (WDLLW) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.2 for Spartak Kostroma (WDDWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 62/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

62/100

Confidence

62/100

Strongest cover

77.4% probability

Risk classification

Medium

27.7% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

44 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

TM win49.7%

Draw27.7%

SK win22.6%

Goals

Over 1.574.2%

Over 2.544.1%

Under 2.555.9%

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%

No52.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Torpedo Moskva

7/15 recent form points

WDLLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.67
Shots on target: Unavailable

Spartak Kostroma

9/15 recent form points

WDDWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.83
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/2 and Over 2.5 in 0/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 21, 06:00 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Spartak Kostroma 0-1 Torpedo Moskva

2025-11-30T15:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Torpedo Moskva 0-1 Spartak Kostroma

2025-08-11T18:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	PinnacleBest price +15.3%	4.72	21.2%	22.6%	+1.4%
	1xBet	4.44	22.5%	22.6%	+0.1%
	Marathonbet	4.40	22.7%	22.6%	-0.1%
	Dafabet	3.85	26.0%	22.6%	-3.4%
	Superbet	3.75	26.7%	22.6%	-4.1%
	SBO	3.41	29.3%	22.6%	-6.7%
Draw 1X2	PinnacleBest price +8.8%	3.60	27.8%	27.7%	-0.1%
	1xBet	3.49	28.7%	27.7%	-1.0%
	Marathonbet	3.44	29.1%	27.7%	-1.4%
	Dafabet	3.20	31.3%	27.7%	-3.6%
	Superbet	3.15	31.7%	27.7%	-4.0%
	SBO	2.97	33.7%	27.7%	-6.0%
Home 1X2	DafabetBest price +7.5%	2.05	48.8%	49.7%	+0.9%
	Superbet	1.97	50.8%	49.7%	-1.1%
	SBO	1.93	51.8%	49.7%	-2.1%
	1xBet	1.92	52.1%	49.7%	-2.4%
	Pinnacle	1.79	55.9%	49.7%	-6.2%
	Marathonbet	1.78	56.2%	49.7%	-6.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	1xBetBest price +1.6%	2.19	45.7%	44.1%	-1.6%
	Superbet	2.17	46.1%	44.1%	-2.0%
	Pinnacle	2.15	46.5%	44.1%	-2.4%
	Marathonbet	2.11	47.4%	44.1%	-3.3%
Under 2.5 Totals	1xBetBest price +3.4%	1.74	57.5%	55.9%	-1.6%
	Pinnacle	1.71	58.5%	55.9%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	1.69	59.2%	55.9%	-3.3%
	Superbet	1.59	62.9%	55.9%	-7.0%
Yes BTTS	SuperbetBest price +1.4%	1.97	50.8%	47.9%	-2.9%
	Marathonbet	1.94	51.5%	47.9%	-3.6%
	1xBet	1.92	52.1%	47.9%	-4.2%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +1.5%	1.79	55.9%	52.1%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	1.75	57.1%	52.1%	-5.0%
	Superbet	1.75	57.1%	52.1%	-5.0%
Draw or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price +4.0%	1.94	51.5%	0.0%	-51.5%
	1xBet	1.94	51.5%	0.0%	-51.5%
	SBO	1.86	53.8%	0.0%	-53.8%
	Superbet	1.72	58.1%	0.0%	-58.1%
Home or Away Double Chance	1xBetBest price +4.3%	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Superbet	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	Marathonbet	1.27	78.7%	0.0%	-78.7%
	SBO	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
Home or Draw Double Chance	1xBetBest price +3.4%	1.23	81.3%	0.0%	-81.3%
	Superbet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	Marathonbet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	SBO	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%

Model reasoning

Torpedo Moskva at home have a 3W 1D 2L record with 10 goals scored and 5 conceded across 6 matches, including 2 clean sheets. Their recent form is WDLLW, which suggests some inconsistency but also the ability to win when they’re on track. Spartak Kostroma are unbeaten away in this sample with a 3W 3D 0L record, scoring 11 and conceding 5, also with 2 clean sheets. Their recent form WDDWD points to steady results and a solid defensive baseline. The match leans toward Torpedo Moskva for a home win, with the provided probabilities showing 49.7% for Torpedo Moskva versus 22.6% for Spartak Kostroma and 27.7% for a draw. At the same time, the away side’s unbeaten record and similar goals conceded keep the risk moderate rather than low. For goals, both teams to score is listed at 47.9%, and over 2.5 goals at 44.1%, so a tight or low-to-mid scoring game is plausible. That aligns with the relatively close defensive numbers, even if the home side has the edge in the win probability.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 19 Aug 2026 16:37 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Torpedo Moskva predictions · Spartak Kostroma predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.