Liga Profesional Argentina
Finished
Medium risk

Talleres Cordoba vs Lanus

03Full time
Wed, Aug 12, 12:00 AMMario Alberto Kempes

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 74/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Talleres Cordoba (LLLWL) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1 for Lanus (DLWLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 74/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

74/100

Confidence
74/100

Strongest cover

1X

72.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

29.7% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

TC win42.9%
Draw29.7%
L win27.4%

Goals

Over 1.565.8%
Over 2.538.2%
Under 2.561.8%

Both teams to score

Yes45.1%
No54.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Talleres Cordoba

3/15 recent form points

LLLWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.05
Shots on target
Unavailable

Lanus

4/15 recent form points

DLWLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Lanus 1-1 Talleres Cordoba

2026-02-09T23:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Lanus 1-0 Talleres Cordoba

2025-08-09T02:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Talleres Cordoba 0-1 Lanus

2025-02-10T01:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Talleres Cordoba 1-2 Lanus

2024-11-07T22:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lanus 2-1 Talleres Cordoba

2023-06-25T01:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Talleres Cordoba 0-1 Lanus

2022-10-02T23:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Lanus 3-3 Talleres Cordoba

2021-10-25T21:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lanus 1-0 Talleres Cordoba

2021-05-09T23:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Lanus 1-0 Talleres Cordoba

2020-11-30T01:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Talleres Cordoba 1-1 Lanus

2020-11-09T23:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Talleres Cordoba at home have been relatively tight defensively, conceding 21 goals in 21 matches and keeping 7 clean sheets. Their recent form includes three straight losses followed by a win, which suggests some inconsistency, but the overall goal profile remains low. Lanus away are also balanced in a way that supports fewer goals, with 20 goals scored and 20 conceded across 20 matches, plus 8 clean sheets. Their recent run is mixed, with a draw and several losses, which aligns with a match that may not open up much. With both teams’ season scoring and conceding numbers sitting around the 1.0 goal-per-match range, the likelihood of a low-scoring game is supported. The probabilities provided also lean that way, with under 2.5 goals implied by the relatively modest over 2.5 goals rate (38.2%) and a moderate chance of both teams scoring (45.1%). So an Under 2.5 Goals outcome looks plausible, though not assured, since the match still has a meaningful chance of reaching three or more goals (over 2.5 at 38.2%). The medium risk fits that balance between generally tight defenses and the possibility of a breakthrough.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-3

Pre-kickoff call

Under 2.5 Goals · 61.9% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.3821 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:10 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Talleres Cordoba predictions · Lanus predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.