Tasmania NPL
Pre-match
Low risk

South Hobart vs Devonport City

Sun, Aug 23, 04:00 AMDarcy Street

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 79/100

Model verdict
Low risk

Over 2.5 Goals

South Hobart (LWWWW) project at 2.1 expected goals versus 1.4 for Devonport City (LWWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 79/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

79/100

Confidence
79/100

Strongest cover

1X

78.8% probability

Risk classification

Low

21.2% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

46 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SH win57.6%
Draw21.2%
DC win21.2%

Goals

Over 1.586.9%
Over 2.568.1%
Under 2.531.9%

Both teams to score

Yes66.6%
No33.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

South Hobart

12/15 recent form points

LWWWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
3.61
Shots on target
Unavailable

Devonport City

12/15 recent form points

LWWWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
3.05
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 7/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
Aug 23, 01:02 AM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Devonport City 1-3 South Hobart

2026-07-18T06:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

South Hobart 3-2 Devonport City

2026-05-02T06:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Devonport City 0-3 South Hobart

2025-09-06T06:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

South Hobart 2-2 Devonport City

2025-07-19T06:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Devonport City 2-2 South Hobart

2025-05-10T06:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

South Hobart 1-2 Devonport City

2024-08-24T06:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

South Hobart 2-2 Devonport City

2024-06-30T06:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Devonport City 1-1 South Hobart

2024-04-20T06:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Devonport City 0-2 South Hobart

2023-09-23T08:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Devonport City 2-0 South Hobart

2023-08-26T06:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Draw
1X2
Bet365Best price +3.5%4.2023.8%21.2%-2.6%
Marathonbet4.2023.8%21.2%-2.6%
Betfair4.2023.8%21.2%-2.6%
10Bet4.0025.0%21.2%-3.8%
Unibet3.9525.3%21.2%-4.1%
William Hill3.8026.3%21.2%-5.1%
Away
1X2
MarathonbetBest price +3.3%4.2023.8%21.2%-2.6%
Unibet4.2023.8%21.2%-2.6%
Betfair4.2023.8%21.2%-2.6%
10Bet4.0025.0%21.2%-3.8%
William Hill4.0025.0%21.2%-3.8%
Bet3653.8026.3%21.2%-5.1%
Home
1X2
William HillBest price +3.8%1.6759.9%57.6%-2.3%
Bet3651.6261.7%57.6%-4.1%
10Bet1.6062.5%57.6%-4.9%
Betfair1.6062.5%57.6%-4.9%
Marathonbet1.5863.3%57.6%-5.7%
Unibet1.5863.3%57.6%-5.7%
Under 2.5
Totals
Bet365Best price +4.4%3.0033.3%31.9%-1.4%
Marathonbet2.9234.2%31.9%-2.3%
Unibet2.7037.0%31.9%-5.1%
Over 2.5
Totals
Bet365Best price +1.2%1.3673.5%68.1%-5.4%
Unibet1.3673.5%68.1%-5.4%
Marathonbet1.3176.3%68.1%-8.2%
No
BTTS
William HillBest price +2.4%2.8035.7%33.4%-2.3%
Marathonbet2.6737.5%33.4%-4.1%
Yes
BTTS
MarathonbetBest price +0.7%1.3872.5%66.6%-5.9%
William Hill1.3673.5%66.6%-6.9%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
10BetBest price +2.9%2.1546.5%0.0%-46.5%
William Hill2.1047.6%0.0%-47.6%
Bet3652.1047.6%0.0%-47.6%
Betfair2.1047.6%0.0%-47.6%
Marathonbet2.0947.8%0.0%-47.8%
Unibet2.0050.0%0.0%-50.0%
Home or Away
Double Chance
William HillBest price +4.7%1.2282.0%0.0%-82.0%
Bet3651.1785.5%0.0%-85.5%
Betfair1.1785.5%0.0%-85.5%
Unibet1.1587.0%0.0%-87.0%
10Bet1.1487.7%0.0%-87.7%
Marathonbet1.1487.7%0.0%-87.7%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
William HillBest price +3.3%1.2083.3%0.0%-83.3%
Bet3651.1884.7%0.0%-84.7%
Betfair1.1785.5%0.0%-85.5%
10Bet1.1487.7%0.0%-87.7%
Marathonbet1.1487.7%0.0%-87.7%
Unibet1.1487.7%0.0%-87.7%

Model reasoning

South Hobart have been very strong at both ends of the pitch, scoring 65 goals in 18 matches while conceding only 16. They also have four clean sheets, and their recent form shows a run of results that includes three wins in their last five games (LWWWW). Devonport City’s away record is also productive, with 58 goals scored and 20 conceded across 19 matches. They’ve kept seven clean sheets overall, and their recent form similarly includes four wins in their last five games (LWWWW). With both teams scoring regularly and South Hobart’s defense still allowing relatively few goals, the match profile points toward at least three total goals. That aligns with the over 2.5 goals probability of 68.1%, and the both teams to score probability of 66.6% suggests goals are likely at both ends rather than a low-scoring stalemate. The home side is also favored for the result (57.6% home win versus 21.2% draw and 21.2% away win), which can support a higher-scoring game script, though the draw chance remains meaningful.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Sun, 23 Aug 2026 03:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: South Hobart predictions · Devonport City predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.