Serie A
Pre-match
Medium risk

RB Bragantino vs Gremio

Sun, Aug 23, 07:00 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 72/100

Model verdict
Medium risk

Home Win

RB Bragantino (WDDLD) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1 for Gremio (LLDWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 72/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

72/100

Confidence
72/100

Strongest cover

1X

79.8% probability

Risk classification

Medium

25.5% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

RB win54.3%
Draw25.5%
G win20.2%

Goals

Over 1.572.2%
Over 2.545.9%
Under 2.554.1%

Both teams to score

Yes49.4%
No50.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

RB Bragantino

6/15 recent form points

WDDLD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.23
Shots on target
Unavailable

Gremio

4/15 recent form points

LLDWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.09
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Gremio 1-1 RB Bragantino

2026-03-13T01:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

RB Bragantino 1-0 Gremio

2025-10-04T23:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Gremio 1-1 RB Bragantino

2025-05-10T23:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

RB Bragantino 2-2 Gremio

2024-09-15T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Gremio 0-2 RB Bragantino

2024-06-01T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

RB Bragantino 2-0 Gremio

2023-09-15T02:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Gremio 3-3 RB Bragantino

2023-05-07T23:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Gremio 3-0 RB Bragantino

2021-11-16T22:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

RB Bragantino 1-0 Gremio

2021-08-01T02:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Bragantino 1-0 Gremio

2021-02-26T01:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

RB Bragantino at home has a slightly stronger overall record than Gremio away, with 9 wins versus 6 and a better goal difference across the season (27 scored, 23 conceded for Bragantino compared with 24 scored, 30 conceded for Gremio). Bragantino also keeps things relatively tight at home, posting 7 clean sheets versus Gremio’s 5 on the road. In recent form, Bragantino’s sequence WDDLD suggests more consistency, while Gremio’s LLDWL includes two losses before a rebound. That pattern aligns with the home side being the more likely outcome, reflected in the probabilities of 54.3% for a Bragantino win versus 20.2% for an away win. The goal outlook is more balanced. The chance of over 2.5 goals is 45.9%, and both teams to score is 49.4%, which points to a fairly even likelihood of a low-to-mid scoring game rather than a clear high-scoring trend. With a 72 confidence score and medium risk, the home win leans the most, but the draw remains plausible (25.5%), and the close scoring indicators suggest the result may not be decisive.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Sat, 22 Aug 2026 09:31 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: RB Bragantino predictions · Gremio predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.