Finished

High risk

Shangyu Pterosaur vs Guangzhou Dandelion

1–3Full time

Sun, Aug 16, 11:30 AMDingnan Football Youth Training Center

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 69/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Shangyu Pterosaur (DDLDL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1 for Guangzhou Dandelion (DLDLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 69/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

69/100

Confidence

69/100

Strongest cover

68.3% probability

Risk classification

High

31.8% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SP win36.5%

Draw31.8%

GD win31.7%

Goals

Over 1.568.9%

Over 2.536.6%

Under 2.563.4%

Both teams to score

Yes43.3%

No56.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Shangyu Pterosaur

3/15 recent form points

DDLDL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.90
Shots on target: Unavailable

Guangzhou Dandelion

3/15 recent form points

DLDLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.95
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/3 and Over 2.5 in 0/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 16, 08:57 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Guangzhou Dandelion 2-0 Shangyu Pterosaur

2026-05-27T13:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Guangzhou Dandelion 1-0 Shangyu Pterosaur

2025-08-03T10:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Shangyu Pterosaur 0-0 Guangzhou Dandelion

2025-05-25T10:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +3.0%	2.88	34.7%	31.8%	-2.9%
	10Bet	2.85	35.1%	31.8%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	2.84	35.2%	31.8%	-3.4%
	BetVictor	2.80	35.7%	31.8%	-3.9%
	William Hill	2.70	37.0%	31.8%	-5.2%
	Bet365	2.70	37.0%	31.8%	-5.2%
Away 1X2	BetVictorBest price +3.0%	2.88	34.7%	31.7%	-3.0%
	Marathonbet	2.84	35.2%	31.7%	-3.5%
	William Hill	2.80	35.7%	31.7%	-4.0%
	Betfair	2.80	35.7%	31.7%	-4.0%
	10Bet	2.75	36.4%	31.7%	-4.7%
	Bet365	2.70	37.0%	31.7%	-5.3%
Home 1X2	Bet365Best price +7.6%	2.70	37.0%	36.5%	-0.5%
	BetVictor	2.55	39.2%	36.5%	-2.7%
	10Bet	2.50	40.0%	36.5%	-3.5%
	William Hill	2.45	40.8%	36.5%	-4.3%
	Marathonbet	2.45	40.8%	36.5%	-4.3%
	Betfair	2.40	41.7%	36.5%	-5.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	BetVictorBest price +8.1%	2.75	36.4%	36.6%	+0.2%
	Marathonbet	2.69	37.2%	36.6%	-0.6%
	Betfair	2.60	38.5%	36.6%	-1.9%
	Bet365	2.38	42.0%	36.6%	-5.4%
	10Bet	2.30	43.5%	36.6%	-6.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +5.5%	1.53	65.4%	63.4%	-2.0%
	10Bet	1.48	67.6%	63.4%	-4.2%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	63.4%	-6.0%
	Marathonbet	1.40	71.4%	63.4%	-8.0%
	BetVictor	1.40	71.4%	63.4%	-8.0%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +1.5%	2.16	46.3%	43.3%	-3.0%
	BetVictor	2.15	46.5%	43.3%	-3.2%
	William Hill	2.10	47.6%	43.3%	-4.3%
	Betfair	2.10	47.6%	43.3%	-4.3%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +2.5%	1.65	60.6%	56.7%	-3.9%
	William Hill	1.62	61.7%	56.7%	-5.0%
	BetVictor	1.60	62.5%	56.7%	-5.8%
	Marathonbet	1.57	63.7%	56.7%	-7.0%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +3.6%	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	10Bet	1.48	67.6%	0.0%	-67.6%
	William Hill	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	BetVictor	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Marathonbet	1.43	69.9%	0.0%	-69.9%
	Bet365	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +3.7%	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	William Hill	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Betfair	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	BetVictor	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Marathonbet	1.32	75.8%	0.0%	-75.8%
	10Bet	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.5%	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	BetVictor	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Bet365	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Betfair	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	Marathonbet	1.32	75.8%	0.0%	-75.8%
	10Bet	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%

Model reasoning

Shangyu Pterosaur have scored 18 goals in 20 matches and conceded 25, with 8 clean sheets, while Guangzhou Dandelion have scored 19 and conceded 27 with 7 clean sheets. Both sides’ goal totals suggest relatively limited scoring rather than frequent high-output games. Recent form points to caution as well. Shangyu’s last five results are DDLDL, and Guangzhou’s are DLDLD, both patterns leaning toward draws and low-scoring outcomes instead of sustained attacking runs. The market-style probabilities align with this: both teams to score is 43.3%, and over 2.5 goals is 36.6%, which is below a coin-flip level. With home win and draw probabilities relatively close (36.5% and 31.8%), a tighter match where one team fails to add a second goal is plausible. So the under 2.5 goals angle fits the season scoring/conceding profile and the recent trend toward stalemates, but the confidence is only moderate and the risk is high given how close the win/draw split is.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-3

Pre-kickoff call

Under 2.5 Goals · 63.4%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.