Finished

Medium risk

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano result & prediction review

2–1Full time

Sat, Aug 15, 07:30 PMRamón Sánchez Pizjuán

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 64/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Sevilla (LDWWL) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 0.9 for Rayo Vallecano (LWLWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 64/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

64/100

Confidence

64/100

Strongest cover

79.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.3% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

S win53.3%

Draw26.3%

RV win20.4%

Goals

Over 1.569.1%

Over 2.542.1%

Under 2.557.9%

Both teams to score

Yes46.8%

No53.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Sevilla

7/15 recent form points

LDWWL

xG / match: 1.06
xGA / match: 1.50
Goals / match: 1.43
Shots on target: Unavailable

Rayo Vallecano

7/15 recent form points

LWLWD

xG / match: 1.30
xGA / match: 1.86
Goals / match: 1.57
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

S derived xG

1.46

RV derived xG

1.40

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 2.86. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Sevilla 2-1 Rayo Vallecano

2026-08-15T21:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano

2026-03-08T18:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Sevilla

2025-09-28T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Sevilla

2025-03-01T16:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Sevilla 1-0 Rayo Vallecano

2024-11-24T16:15:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Sevilla

2024-02-05T21:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sevilla 2-2 Rayo Vallecano

2023-10-07T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Sevilla

2023-02-19T16:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Sevilla 0-1 Rayo Vallecano

2022-10-29T18:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Sevilla

2022-03-13T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 41.5% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.2179 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:31 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Sevilla predictions · Rayo Vallecano predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.