Pre-match

High risk

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction

Sat, Oct 10, 02:15 PMEstadio Mendizorrotza

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 59/100

Model verdict

High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Alaves (WWLLD) project at 1.1 expected goals versus 1 for Atletico Madrid (WLWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 59/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

59/100

Confidence

59/100

Strongest cover

69.3% probability

Risk classification

High

30.7% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

A win35.1%

Draw30.7%

AM win34.2%

Goals

Over 1.563.9%

Over 2.536.2%

Under 2.563.8%

Both teams to score

Yes44%

No56%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Alaves

7/15 recent form points

WWLLD

xG / match: 1.52
xGA / match: 1.09
Goals / match: 1.57
Shots on target: Unavailable

Atletico Madrid

12/15 recent form points

WLWWW

xG / match: 1.96
xGA / match: 1.21
Goals / match: 2.29
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

A derived xG

1.37

AM derived xG

1.52

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 2.89. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves

2026-01-18T16:15:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Alaves 1-1 Atletico Madrid

2025-08-30T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Alaves 0-0 Atletico Madrid

2025-05-03T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Alaves

2024-11-23T16:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Alaves 2-0 Atletico Madrid

2024-04-21T18:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Alaves

2023-10-29T21:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Atletico Madrid 4-1 Alaves

2022-04-02T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Alaves 1-0 Atletico Madrid

2021-09-25T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves

2021-03-21T18:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid

2021-01-03T16:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Under 2.5 Goals lean for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

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Team hubs: Alaves predictions · Atletico Madrid predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.