Pre-match

High risk

Sabah FA vs Penang

Fri, Aug 28, 11:30 AMLikas Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 57/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Sabah FA (LDWWL) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.3 for Penang (DDLDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 57/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

57/100

Confidence

57/100

Strongest cover

78.3% probability

Risk classification

High

24.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

51 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SF win54.2%

Draw24.1%

P win21.7%

Goals

Over 1.578.4%

Over 2.553.3%

Under 2.546.7%

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%

No44.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Sabah FA

7/15 recent form points

LDWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.21
Shots on target: Unavailable

Penang

6/15 recent form points

DDLDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.08
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 28, 10:28 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Penang 0-0 Sabah FA

2026-04-26T11:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Sabah FA 0-0 Penang

2026-04-19T14:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Penang 1-1 Sabah FA

2026-04-04T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Sabah FA 3-2 Penang

2025-11-23T12:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Penang 0-4 Sabah FA

2024-10-25T14:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Sabah FA 0-0 Penang

2024-05-12T11:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Penang 1-2 Sabah FA

2023-07-30T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sabah FA 5-2 Penang

2023-03-17T13:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sabah FA 4-1 Penang

2022-10-07T13:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Penang 2-4 Sabah FA

2022-05-17T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	PinnacleBest price +9.4%	4.37	22.9%	21.7%	-1.2%
	Betfair	4.20	23.8%	21.7%	-2.1%
	Bet365	4.10	24.4%	21.7%	-2.7%
	William Hill	4.00	25.0%	21.7%	-3.3%
	BetVictor	3.90	25.6%	21.7%	-3.9%
	Unibet	3.40	29.4%	21.7%	-7.7%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +8.8%	3.90	25.6%	24.1%	-1.5%
	Pinnacle	3.70	27.0%	24.1%	-2.9%
	Unibet	3.65	27.4%	24.1%	-3.3%
	Betfair	3.60	27.8%	24.1%	-3.7%
	William Hill	3.40	29.4%	24.1%	-5.3%
	BetVictor	3.25	30.8%	24.1%	-6.7%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +8.5%	1.82	54.9%	54.2%	-0.7%
	Pinnacle	1.68	59.5%	54.2%	-5.3%
	William Hill	1.67	59.9%	54.2%	-5.7%
	Betfair	1.67	59.9%	54.2%	-5.7%
	Bet365	1.65	60.6%	54.2%	-6.4%
	BetVictor	1.57	63.7%	54.2%	-9.5%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +5.0%	2.05	48.8%	46.7%	-2.1%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	46.7%	-3.3%
	Unibet	1.97	50.8%	46.7%	-4.1%
	Pinnacle	1.96	51.0%	46.7%	-4.3%
	BetVictor	1.78	56.2%	46.7%	-9.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +6.9%	1.83	54.6%	53.3%	-1.3%
	Bet365	1.75	57.1%	53.3%	-3.8%
	Betfair	1.73	57.8%	53.3%	-4.5%
	Unibet	1.68	59.5%	53.3%	-6.2%
	BetVictor	1.57	63.7%	53.3%	-10.4%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +4.3%	2.10	47.6%	44.7%	-2.9%
	Unibet	2.10	47.6%	44.7%	-2.9%
	Betfair	2.05	48.8%	44.7%	-4.1%
	BetVictor	1.80	55.6%	44.7%	-10.9%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +6.0%	1.73	57.8%	55.3%	-2.5%
	Unibet	1.63	61.3%	55.3%	-6.0%
	William Hill	1.62	61.7%	55.3%	-6.4%
	BetVictor	1.55	64.5%	55.3%	-9.2%
Draw or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.6%	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	BetVictor	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Bet365	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	Unibet	1.76	56.8%	0.0%	-56.8%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +4.3%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Unibet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
	William Hill	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	BetVictor	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.0%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Betfair	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Unibet	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	BetVictor	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Sabah FA vs Penang. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: no qualified value edge clears the fair-price threshold. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:01 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Sabah FA predictions · Penang predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.