Finished

High risk

Nantes vs Rodez

2–5Full time

Sat, Aug 22, 12:00 PMStade de la Beaujoire

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 35/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Away Win

Nantes (LLL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.5 for Rodez (DWWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

35/100

Confidence

35/100

Strongest cover

75.8% probability

Risk classification

High

24.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

N win26.3%

Draw24.2%

R win49.5%

Goals

Over 1.576.6%

Over 2.551.6%

Under 2.548.4%

Both teams to score

Yes56%

No44%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Nantes

0/9 recent form points

LLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Rodez

10/15 recent form points

DWWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.33
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: No H2H · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Rodez look more likely to win away, with the away win probability at 49.5% versus 26.3% for Nantes. The gap is driven by Nantes’ very poor start at home this season, with 0 wins in 3 matches and a goal record of 3 scored and 8 conceded. Nantes’ recent form is also weak, showing LLL in their latest matches, and they have no clean sheets so far. That suggests they have struggled to control games, which can make it harder to avoid conceding when facing a team that has been more consistent overall. Rodez’s profile is steadier, with 16 wins, 13 draws, and 7 losses across 36 matches, plus 48 goals scored and 42 conceded. Their recent form (DWWWL) includes multiple wins, and they have managed 7 clean sheets, which supports the idea that they can keep Nantes from dominating. For goals, over 2.5 is slightly favored at 51.6%, and both teams to score is at 56.0%. That combination fits a scenario where Rodez edge the result, while Nantes still have a reasonable chance to find a goal despite their current struggles.

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-5

Pre-kickoff call

Away Win · 46.4% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1831 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sat, 22 Aug 2026 09:31 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Nantes predictions · Rodez predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.