Allsvenskan
Pre-match
High risk

Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF

Mon, Aug 24, 05:00 PMEleda Stadion

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 65/100

Model verdict
High risk

BTTS Yes

Malmo FF (DLWLW) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.5 for Djurgardens IF (DWWLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 65/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

65/100

Confidence
65/100

Strongest cover

12

74.8% probability

Risk classification

High

25.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

MF win38.8%
Draw25.2%
DI win36%

Goals

Over 1.582.4%
Over 2.560.3%
Under 2.539.7%

Both teams to score

Yes63%
No37%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Malmo FF

7/15 recent form points

DLWLW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.88
Shots on target
Unavailable

Djurgardens IF

7/15 recent form points

DWWLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.13
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Djurgardens IF 0-1 Malmo FF

2026-04-17T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Malmo FF 0-1 Djurgardens IF

2025-09-20T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Djurgardens IF 0-1 Malmo FF

2025-03-29T15:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Malmo FF 4-0 Djurgardens IF

2024-09-01T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Malmo FF 1-1 Djurgardens IF

2024-05-01T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Djurgardens IF 0-1 Malmo FF

2024-04-25T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Malmo FF 0-0 Djurgardens IF

2023-08-20T15:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Djurgardens IF 2-0 Malmo FF

2023-07-17T19:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Djurgardens IF 2-2 Malmo FF

2023-03-12T16:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Malmo FF 2-3 Djurgardens IF

2022-10-20T19:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Malmo FF at home have scored 32 goals in 17 matches and conceded 27, with 5 clean sheets. Their recent form is mixed (DLWLW), suggesting they can score but also allow goals often enough to keep both teams involved. Djurgardens IF away have scored 34 goals in 16 matches and conceded 19, with 6 clean sheets. Their recent form is also uneven (DWWLL), but their overall scoring rate remains strong, which supports the idea that they can contribute offensively even on the road. The matchup leans toward both teams scoring: the provided both teams to score probability is 63.0%, and the over 2.5 goals probability is 60.3%. With Malmo conceding 27 and Djurgardens conceding 19 across their respective matches, there is a reasonable chance of at least one goal from each side, though the relatively high risk level reflects that the recent form volatility could swing the game. So the BTTS Yes call fits the goal profiles and the stated probabilities, with moderate confidence (65) rather than a sure outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Sun, 23 Aug 2026 09:31 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Malmo FF predictions · Djurgardens IF predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.