Pre-match

Medium risk

Macarthur Rams vs Blacktown Spartans

Sat, Aug 15, 06:30 AM

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 72/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

BTTS Yes

Macarthur Rams (DWLWW) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.5 for Blacktown Spartans (WWWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 72/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

72/100

Confidence

72/100

Strongest cover

76.7% probability

Risk classification

Medium

23.3% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

47 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

MR win31%

Draw23.3%

BS win45.7%

Goals

Over 1.578.4%

Over 2.560.9%

Under 2.539.1%

Both teams to score

Yes62.5%

No37.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Macarthur Rams

10/15 recent form points

DWLWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.33
Shots on target: Unavailable

Blacktown Spartans

15/15 recent form points

WWWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.56
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/7 and Over 2.5 in 3/7.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 15, 02:56 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Blacktown Spartans 0-1 Macarthur Rams

2026-05-01T12:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Blacktown Spartans 3-0 Macarthur Rams

2025-08-08T12:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Macarthur Rams 1-2 Blacktown Spartans

2025-04-26T09:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Macarthur Rams 0-1 Blacktown Spartans

2024-08-10T11:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Blacktown Spartans 2-1 Macarthur Rams

2024-05-04T11:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Blacktown Spartans 1-1 Macarthur Rams

2023-08-19T11:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Macarthur Rams 0-2 Blacktown Spartans

2023-05-06T11:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +6.1%	3.94	25.4%	23.3%	-2.1%
	1xBet	3.94	25.4%	23.3%	-2.1%
	Pinnacle	3.85	26.0%	23.3%	-2.7%
	Betfair	3.80	26.3%	23.3%	-3.0%
	William Hill	3.50	28.6%	23.3%	-5.3%
	BetVictor	3.25	30.8%	23.3%	-7.5%
Home 1X2	BetfairBest price +2.1%	2.90	34.5%	31.0%	-3.5%
	1xBet	2.90	34.5%	31.0%	-3.5%
	William Hill	2.88	34.7%	31.0%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	2.85	35.1%	31.0%	-4.1%
	Pinnacle	2.77	36.1%	31.0%	-5.1%
	BetVictor	2.75	36.4%	31.0%	-5.4%
Away 1X2	William HillBest price +1.4%	2.00	50.0%	45.7%	-4.3%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	45.7%	-4.3%
	1xBet	1.99	50.3%	45.7%	-4.6%
	Pinnacle	1.98	50.5%	45.7%	-4.8%
	Marathonbet	1.97	50.8%	45.7%	-5.1%
	BetVictor	1.90	52.6%	45.7%	-6.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +0.3%	2.35	42.6%	39.1%	-3.5%
	1xBet	2.35	42.6%	39.1%	-3.5%
	Pinnacle	2.33	42.9%	39.1%	-3.8%
Over 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +1.4%	1.50	66.7%	60.9%	-5.8%
	Marathonbet	1.47	68.0%	60.9%	-7.1%
	1xBet	1.47	68.0%	60.9%	-7.1%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +4.3%	2.50	40.0%	37.5%	-2.5%
	1xBet	2.50	40.0%	37.5%	-2.5%
	Marathonbet	2.44	41.0%	37.5%	-3.5%
	BetVictor	2.15	46.5%	37.5%	-9.0%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +1.8%	1.45	69.0%	62.5%	-6.5%
	1xBet	1.45	69.0%	62.5%	-6.5%
	William Hill	1.44	69.4%	62.5%	-6.9%
	BetVictor	1.36	73.5%	62.5%	-11.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +3.6%	1.73	57.8%	0.0%	-57.8%
	William Hill	1.70	58.8%	0.0%	-58.8%
	Marathonbet	1.66	60.2%	0.0%	-60.2%
	1xBet	1.66	60.2%	0.0%	-60.2%
	BetVictor	1.60	62.5%	0.0%	-62.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +3.5%	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	William Hill	1.35	74.1%	0.0%	-74.1%
	Marathonbet	1.32	75.8%	0.0%	-75.8%
	1xBet	1.32	75.8%	0.0%	-75.8%
	BetVictor	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +6.1%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	1xBet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	BetVictor	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%

Model reasoning

Blacktown Spartans look more likely to create the better chance profile in this matchup, with a strong away record (19W 5D 3L) and a much higher scoring output than Macarthur Rams (69 goals vs 36). Their recent form is also very strong, with five straight wins, which supports the idea that they can score consistently even away from home. Macarthur Rams have been more mixed recently (DWLWW) and their defensive record is less secure than Blacktown’s overall attacking threat suggests (28 conceded, with 10 clean sheets). With Blacktown’s goals conceded being relatively low for the league context (32) and their own scoring rate high, the game script leans toward both teams finding the net rather than one side being shut out. The probabilities align with this: both teams to score is at 62.5%, and over 2.5 goals is at 60.9%. A draw is also plausible (23.3%), but the away win probability is higher (45.7%), which fits a scenario where Blacktown’s attack breaks through while Macarthur still contributes at least once. So BTTS Yes is the lean, with medium risk because Macarthur’s clean sheets (10) show they can keep games tighter at times, even if their recent form isn’t as dominant as Blacktown’s.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Sat, 15 Aug 2026 06:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

More predictions

All New South Wales NPL 2 predictions →

Team hubs: Macarthur Rams predictions · Blacktown Spartans predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.