Live

Medium risk

Launceston City vs Clarence Zebras

1–190′

Sat, Aug 15, 06:45 AMProspect Park

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 76/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Launceston City (LWDLL) project at 1.9 expected goals versus 1.5 for Clarence Zebras (DLWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 76/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

76/100

Confidence

76/100

Strongest cover

78.3% probability

Risk classification

Medium

21.7% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

46 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

LC win51.6%

Draw21.7%

CZ win26.7%

Goals

Over 1.586.3%

Over 2.572%

Under 2.528%

Both teams to score

Yes69.1%

No30.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Launceston City

4/15 recent form points

LWDLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.22
Shots on target: Unavailable

Clarence Zebras

7/15 recent form points

DLWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.67
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 8/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 15, 06:01 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Clarence Zebras 1-2 Launceston City

2026-07-11T06:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Launceston City 2-0 Clarence Zebras

2026-04-18T08:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Launceston City 12-3 Clarence Zebras

2025-08-02T08:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Clarence Zebras 0-3 Launceston City

2025-05-31T06:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Launceston City 3-0 Clarence Zebras

2025-03-22T06:45:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Clarence Zebras 2-2 Launceston City

2024-08-24T06:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Clarence Zebras 1-1 Launceston City

2024-06-29T06:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Launceston City 2-1 Clarence Zebras

2024-04-20T08:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Launceston City 0-3 Clarence Zebras

2023-08-26T08:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Launceston City 3-1 Clarence Zebras

2023-07-01T08:45:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +8.1%	4.33	23.1%	21.7%	-1.4%
	Marathonbet	4.05	24.7%	21.7%	-3.0%
	10Bet	4.00	25.0%	21.7%	-3.3%
	Betfair	4.00	25.0%	21.7%	-3.3%
	Unibet	3.95	25.3%	21.7%	-3.6%
	William Hill	3.70	27.0%	21.7%	-5.3%
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +5.8%	3.50	28.6%	26.7%	-1.9%
	Betfair	3.50	28.6%	26.7%	-1.9%
	William Hill	3.30	30.3%	26.7%	-3.6%
	Unibet	3.25	30.8%	26.7%	-4.1%
	10Bet	3.20	31.3%	26.7%	-4.6%
	Bet365	3.10	32.3%	26.7%	-5.6%
Home 1X2	William HillBest price +3.5%	1.85	54.1%	51.6%	-2.5%
	10Bet	1.80	55.6%	51.6%	-4.0%
	Bet365	1.80	55.6%	51.6%	-4.0%
	Unibet	1.79	55.9%	51.6%	-4.3%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	51.6%	-5.5%
	Marathonbet	1.73	57.8%	51.6%	-6.2%
Under 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +4.2%	3.45	29.0%	28.0%	-1.0%
	Bet365	3.40	29.4%	28.0%	-1.4%
	Marathonbet	3.08	32.5%	28.0%	-4.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.4%	1.30	76.9%	72.0%	-4.9%
	Marathonbet	1.28	78.1%	72.0%	-6.1%
	Unibet	1.23	81.3%	72.0%	-9.3%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +0.5%	3.00	33.3%	30.9%	-2.4%
	Marathonbet	2.97	33.7%	30.9%	-2.8%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +1.5%	1.35	74.1%	69.1%	-5.0%
	Marathonbet	1.31	76.3%	69.1%	-7.2%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +3.9%	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	Marathonbet	1.88	53.2%	0.0%	-53.2%
	William Hill	1.85	54.1%	0.0%	-54.1%
	Betfair	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	Bet365	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	Unibet	1.76	56.8%	0.0%	-56.8%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.9%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Unibet	1.23	81.3%	0.0%	-81.3%
	10Bet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.21	82.6%	0.0%	-82.6%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.9%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	Unibet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	10Bet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%

Model reasoning

Launceston City have scored 40 goals in 18 matches and conceded 36, which suggests they can contribute to scoring even if they are not consistently shutting teams out. Their recent form includes a mix of results (LWDLL), but the overall goal numbers point to games that can produce multiple scoring events. Clarence Zebras have 30 goals for and 29 against in 18 matches, with 5 clean sheets. Their recent form (DLWWL) shows some ability to win, and their season defensive record is slightly better than Launceston’s in terms of goals conceded, but it still allows enough goals that a low-scoring script is not guaranteed. With both teams to score at 69.1% and over 2.5 goals at 72.0%, the matchup profile leans toward at least three total goals. The medium risk level fits the fact that both sides have some clean-sheet capability, so the main uncertainty is whether one team manages to keep the other from scoring. The most likely outcomes by the provided probabilities are a Launceston win (51.6%) or a draw (21.7%), but the goal-based signals are stronger than the result-based ones, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals call rather than a narrow margin expectation.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Sat, 15 Aug 2026 06:30 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: Launceston City predictions · Clarence Zebras predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.