FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
AI prediction
BTTS Yes
Confidence 51/100
BTTS Yes
FSV Mainz 05 (DLWLW) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.7 for Bayer Leverkusen (LWWLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 51/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
51/100
Strongest cover
12
75.5% probability
Risk classification
High
24.5% draw weight
Value status
Unpriced
Pre-match odds unavailable
Market sample
Unavailable
No pre-match quotes
Full distribution
Market probabilities
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Evidence ledger
FSV Mainz 05
7/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- 2.64
- xGA / match
- 1.55
- Goals / match
- 1.29
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Bayer Leverkusen
7/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- 2.61
- xGA / match
- 0.86
- Goals / match
- 2.00
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Matchup xG signal
FM0 derived xG
1.75
BL derived xG
2.08
Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 3.83. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 7/10.
Price interpretation
Value read
Odds unavailable for this fixture
The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.
Provenance
Model card
- Version
- livewin-hybrid-v0.6
- Data source
- Licensed live data feed
- Statistics baseline
- 2025 season
- Odds timestamp
- No odds available
- Optional coverage
- H2H available · no odds
- Confidence
- Signal agreement score
- Risk
- High · uncertainty remains
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.
Head-to-Head
Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FSV Mainz 05
2026-02-28T15:30:00+01:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen
2025-10-18T15:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen
2025-05-17T15:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 FSV Mainz 05
2025-01-14T20:30:00+01:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 FSV Mainz 05
2024-02-23T20:30:00+01:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
FSV Mainz 05 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen
2023-09-30T15:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 FSV Mainz 05
2023-02-19T19:30:00+01:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
FSV Mainz 05 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen
2022-08-27T15:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
FSV Mainz 05 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen
2022-02-18T20:30:00+01:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 FSV Mainz 05
2021-09-25T15:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Recorded forecast
Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.
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Team hubs: FSV Mainz 05 predictions · Bayer Leverkusen predictions
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.