Pre-match

High risk

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen prediction

Fri, Oct 9, 06:30 PMSignal Iduna Park

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 55/100

Model verdict

High risk

Home Win

Borussia Dortmund (LWLWW) project at 2.2 expected goals versus 1 for Werder Bremen (WDLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 55/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

55/100

Confidence

55/100

Strongest cover

88.1% probability

Risk classification

High

17.7% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

BD win70.4%

Draw17.7%

WB win11.9%

Goals

Over 1.583.4%

Over 2.561.9%

Under 2.538.1%

Both teams to score

Yes56.2%

No43.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Borussia Dortmund

9/15 recent form points

LWLWW

xG / match: 2.15
xGA / match: 1.06
Goals / match: 2.06
Shots on target: Unavailable

Werder Bremen

4/15 recent form points

WDLLL

xG / match: 1.32
xGA / match: 1.58
Goals / match: 1.09
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

BD derived xG

1.86

WB derived xG

1.19

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 3.06. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund

2026-05-16T15:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Werder Bremen

2026-01-13T20:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen

2025-01-25T15:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Werder Bremen 0-0 Borussia Dortmund

2024-08-31T15:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund

2024-03-09T18:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Werder Bremen

2023-10-20T20:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund

2023-02-11T15:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Werder Bremen

2022-08-20T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund 4-1 Werder Bremen

2021-04-18T15:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund

2020-12-15T20:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen. Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

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Team hubs: Borussia Dortmund predictions · Werder Bremen predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.