CONMEBOL Libertadores
Finished
High risk

Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia

00Full time
Tue, Aug 11, 10:00 PMEstádio do Maracanã

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 57/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Away Win

Fluminense (LLDWW) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.4 for Independ. Rivadavia (WWDWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 57/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

57/100

Confidence
57/100

Strongest cover

12

73.7% probability

Risk classification

High

26.3% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

F win27.9%
Draw26.3%
IR win45.8%

Goals

Over 1.573.8%
Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%

Both teams to score

Yes53.2%
No46.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Fluminense

7/15 recent form points

LLDWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.17
Shots on target
Unavailable

Independ. Rivadavia

13/15 recent form points

WWDWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.50
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/2 and Over 2.5 in 1/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Independ. Rivadavia 1-1 Fluminense

2026-05-07T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Fluminense 1-2 Independ. Rivadavia

2026-04-16T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Independiente Rivadavia look slightly more likely to win away, with their results reading 5W 1D 0L and a strong goal output of 15 scored versus 6 conceded across 6 matches. Fluminense’s home record is more balanced at 2W 2D 2L, and their goals for and against are both 7, suggesting less consistent attacking returns at this stage. The match profile also leans toward goals. Independiente Rivadavia have been productive in general (15 scored), while Fluminense have conceded 7 in 6 matches, supporting the 47.9% chance for over 2.5 goals. The 53.2% probability for both teams to score aligns with Fluminense’s ability to find goals (7 scored) despite their defensive concessions. Even with the away edge, the confidence is only moderate and the risk is high because the home side is not far off in outcomes, with a 27.9% home win probability and a 26.3% draw probability. That spread suggests the result could swing either way, though the current balance of form and scoring favors Independiente Rivadavia for the win.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-0

Pre-kickoff call

Away Win · 45.8% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.1438 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Tue, 11 Aug 2026 18:58 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Fluminense predictions · Independ. Rivadavia predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.