Pre-match

Low risk

FCI Levadia II vs FC Tallinn

Sun, Aug 23, 10:00 AMMaarjamae staadion

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 80/100

Model verdict

Low risk

Over 2.5 Goals

FCI Levadia II (WDWLL) project at 2.1 expected goals versus 1.3 for FC Tallinn (WWDLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 80/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

80/100

Confidence

80/100

Strongest cover

78.9% probability

Risk classification

Low

21.1% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

48 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

FLI win55.7%

Draw21.1%

FT win23.2%

Goals

Over 1.586.5%

Over 2.571.5%

Under 2.528.5%

Both teams to score

Yes70.1%

No29.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

FCI Levadia II

7/15 recent form points

WDWLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.88
Shots on target: Unavailable

FC Tallinn

8/15 recent form points

WWDLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.25
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/9 and Over 2.5 in 7/9.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 23, 06:01 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

FCI Levadia II 4-0 FC Tallinn

2026-06-21T11:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

FC Tallinn 4-2 FCI Levadia II

2026-04-27T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

FCI Levadia II 3-2 FC Tallinn

2026-02-15T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

FC Tallinn 2-3 FCI Levadia II

2025-09-18T16:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

FCI Levadia II 5-6 FC Tallinn

2025-07-26T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

FCI Levadia II 0-2 FC Tallinn

2025-06-19T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

FC Tallinn 1-1 FCI Levadia II

2025-03-16T16:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

FCI Levadia II 2-3 FC Tallinn

2024-10-20T11:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

FC Tallinn 1-2 FCI Levadia II

2024-09-15T11:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +3.3%	4.20	23.8%	21.1%	-2.7%
	BetVictor	4.20	23.8%	21.1%	-2.7%
	10Bet	4.10	24.4%	21.1%	-3.3%
	Unibet	4.00	25.0%	21.1%	-3.9%
	Betfair	4.00	25.0%	21.1%	-3.9%
	William Hill	3.90	25.6%	21.1%	-4.5%
Away 1X2	UnibetBest price +7.6%	4.00	25.0%	23.2%	-1.8%
	BetVictor	3.90	25.6%	23.2%	-2.4%
	10Bet	3.75	26.7%	23.2%	-3.5%
	William Hill	3.75	26.7%	23.2%	-3.5%
	Betfair	3.50	28.6%	23.2%	-5.4%
	Bet365	3.40	29.4%	23.2%	-6.2%
Home 1X2	BetfairBest price +5.0%	1.75	57.1%	55.7%	-1.4%
	Bet365	1.73	57.8%	55.7%	-2.1%
	William Hill	1.67	59.9%	55.7%	-4.2%
	BetVictor	1.65	60.6%	55.7%	-4.9%
	10Bet	1.64	61.0%	55.7%	-5.3%
	Unibet	1.56	64.1%	55.7%	-8.4%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +10.2%	3.60	27.8%	28.5%	+0.7%
	Bet365	3.40	29.4%	28.5%	-0.9%
	Unibet	2.80	35.7%	28.5%	-7.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.8%	1.30	76.9%	71.5%	-5.4%
	Unibet	1.28	78.1%	71.5%	-6.6%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	71.5%	-8.5%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +8.5%	3.40	29.4%	29.9%	+0.5%
	BetVictor	3.20	31.3%	29.9%	-1.4%
	William Hill	2.80	35.7%	29.9%	-5.8%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +3.3%	1.36	73.5%	70.1%	-3.4%
	BetVictor	1.30	76.9%	70.1%	-6.8%
	Betfair	1.29	77.5%	70.1%	-7.4%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +4.8%	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	BetVictor	2.10	47.6%	0.0%	-47.6%
	William Hill	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Unibet	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Bet365	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	0.0%	-52.4%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +3.9%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	William Hill	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	BetVictor	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	10Bet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.2%	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	BetVictor	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	10Bet	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	Unibet	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%

Model reasoning

FCI Levadia II at home have scored 45 goals in 24 matches but also conceded 47, which suggests their games are often open rather than tightly controlled. Their recent form includes a mix of results (WDWLL), but the overall home goal balance points toward scoring opportunities on both sides. FC Tallinn’s away record is weaker (6W 7D 11L) and they have conceded 52 goals while scoring 30, indicating they may struggle to keep games low scoring. Their recent away form (WWDLD) includes some positive results, yet the season totals still lean toward conceding. With Levadia II’s home scoring and concession rate combined with Tallinn’s tendency to allow goals away, the matchup profile supports a higher likelihood of at least three total goals. The probabilities provided align with this, with over 2.5 goals at 71.5% and both teams to score at 70.1%, so the over looks like the safer direction given the low risk level. A draw is also plausible (21.1%), but even in that scenario the goal-based probabilities suggest the game is more likely to reach 3+ goals than stay under.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Sun, 23 Aug 2026 09:31 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

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Team hubs: FCI Levadia II predictions · FC Tallinn predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.