Pre-match

Medium risk

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid prediction

Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PMRCDE Stadium

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 60/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Away Win

Espanyol (LDWLL) project at 1 expected goals versus 1.3 for Atletico Madrid (WLWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 60/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

60/100

Confidence

60/100

Strongest cover

75.1% probability

Risk classification

Medium

27.6% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

E win24.9%

Draw27.6%

AM win47.5%

Goals

Over 1.568.1%

Over 2.540.9%

Under 2.559.1%

Both teams to score

Yes47.3%

No52.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Espanyol

4/15 recent form points

LDWLL

xG / match: 1.35
xGA / match: 1.46
Goals / match: 1.43
Shots on target: Unavailable

Atletico Madrid

12/15 recent form points

WLWWW

xG / match: 1.96
xGA / match: 1.21
Goals / match: 2.29
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

E derived xG

1.28

AM derived xG

1.71

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 2.99. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 9/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Atletico Madrid 4-2 Espanyol

2026-02-21T21:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Espanyol 2-1 Atletico Madrid

2025-08-17T21:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Espanyol 1-1 Atletico Madrid

2025-03-29T16:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Atletico Madrid 0-0 Espanyol

2024-08-28T21:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Espanyol 3-3 Atletico Madrid

2023-05-24T22:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Atletico Madrid 1-1 Espanyol

2022-11-06T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Espanyol

2022-04-17T16:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Espanyol 1-2 Atletico Madrid

2021-09-12T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Espanyol 1-1 Atletico Madrid

2020-03-01T16:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Atletico Madrid 3-1 Espanyol

2019-11-10T16:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Away Win lean for Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.