Cagliari vs Inter

Inter’s away profile looks stronger than Cagliari’s home results. Cagliari have 11 wins, 10 draws, and 17 losses at home, while Inter have 27 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses overall, with a recent run that includes two wins in their last five matches (DWWDD). That combination supports an Inter edge, though it’s not overwhelming. In goal terms, Inter’s season numbers are more favorable. Inter have scored 89 and conceded 35, with 18 clean sheets, while Cagliari have scored 40 and conceded 53 with 8 clean sheets. The expected goals also lean toward Inter, with higher expected goals for (58.46 vs 47.78) and a better expected goals against (46.23 vs 39.13), suggesting Inter are more likely to create and control scoring chances. The draw probability is still meaningful, and the confidence is moderate with a high risk level. The market-style outputs show Inter win at 40.1% versus Cagliari win at 32.3% and a 27.6% draw, so the away win case is plausible but not dominant. For scoring, both teams to score is slightly more likely than not (52.4%), and over 2.5 goals sits at 46.6%. That points to a game where Inter may edge the result, but it could still be relatively close rather than a clear, high-scoring blowout.