CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Finished
High risk

Boca Juniors vs Deportivo Recoleta

3–1Full time
Tue, Aug 11, 10:00 PMEstadio Tomas Adolfo Duco

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 57/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

Boca Juniors (WD) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1 for Deportivo Recoleta (DDDDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 57/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

57/100

Confidence
57/100

Strongest cover

1X

75.8% probability

Risk classification

High

28.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

BJ win47.6%
Draw28.2%
DR win24.2%

Goals

Over 1.566.1%
Over 2.538.6%
Under 2.561.4%

Both teams to score

Yes45.2%
No54.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Boca Juniors

4/6 recent form points

WD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Deportivo Recoleta

7/15 recent form points

DDDDW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.14
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
No H2H · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Boca Juniors at home have a stronger immediate record, with 1 win and 1 draw from 2 matches, plus 1 clean sheet and a 2-1 goal difference. Their recent form is WD, which supports a competitive home showing rather than a one-sided outcome. Deportivo Recoleta away have not lost in their 7-match record, going 2W and 5D with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their recent form is DDDDW, suggesting they are more likely to avoid defeat than to dominate, which pulls the draw probability up. The home win signal is present but not dominant: home win is 47.6% versus draw at 28.2% and away win at 24.2%. With both teams to score at 45.2% and over 2.5 goals at 38.6%, the match profile looks more like a tight game where Boca can edge it, but the lower goal and scoring probabilities keep the risk elevated.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 47.6% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1666 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Tue, 11 Aug 2026 19:05 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Boca Juniors predictions · Deportivo Recoleta predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.