Canadian Championship
Finished
High risk

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec

33Full time
Tue, Aug 11, 11:00 PMTD Place Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 41/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

Atlético Ottawa (WWWLW) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1.3 for Supra du Quebec (WWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 41/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

41/100

Confidence
41/100

Strongest cover

12

77.4% probability

Risk classification

High

22.6% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AO win54.1%
Draw22.6%
SDQ win23.3%

Goals

Over 1.582.4%
Over 2.560.3%
Under 2.539.7%

Both teams to score

Yes61.6%
No38.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Atlético Ottawa

12/15 recent form points

WWWLW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Supra du Quebec

7/9 recent form points

WWD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
3.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/5 and Over 2.5 in 4/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Supra du Quebec 1-2 Atlético Ottawa

2026-08-16T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Atlético Ottawa 3-3 Supra du Quebec

2026-08-12T01:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Supra du Quebec 3-1 Atlético Ottawa

2026-07-09T01:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Atlético Ottawa 5-3 Supra du Quebec

2026-06-10T01:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Supra du Quebec 0-1 Atlético Ottawa

2026-04-19T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Atlético Ottawa at home have been more consistent in their recent run, with a 4W 0D 1L record across 5 matches and 2 clean sheets. They’ve scored 10 and conceded 7 overall, suggesting they can create chances while still keeping games reasonably controlled. Supra du Quebec’s away record is strong in results terms, with 2W 1D 0L in 3 matches, and they’ve scored 9 while conceding 5. However, they have 0 clean sheets, which points to them conceding at least once in their games, even when they avoid losing. The matchup leans toward Atlético Ottawa for the result, with home win probability at 54.1% versus 23.3% for Supra du Quebec and 22.6% for a draw. At the same time, the goal indicators are fairly supportive of a more open game, with over 2.5 goals at 60.3% and both teams to score at 61.6%, which reduces the safety of a narrow home win. With a confidence score of 41 and a high risk level, the home win call looks plausible but not strongly secure, especially given Supra du Quebec’s unbeaten away record and their ability to score.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-3

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 50.5% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.1595 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Tue, 11 Aug 2026 19:01 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Atlético Ottawa predictions · Supra du Quebec predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.