Cup
Finished
High risk

Astrakhan vs Mashuk-KMV

1–1Full time
Wed, Aug 12, 03:00 PM

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 35/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Away Win

Astrakhan (WWL) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1 for Mashuk-KMV (WL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

35/100

Confidence
35/100

Strongest cover

X2

83.8% probability

Risk classification

High

25.3% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

3 sources

25 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

A win16.2%
Draw25.3%
M win58.5%

Goals

Over 1.577.1%
Over 2.543.9%
Under 2.556.1%

Both teams to score

Yes43.5%
No56.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Astrakhan

6/9 recent form points

WWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Mashuk-KMV

3/6 recent form points

WL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.50
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/3 and Over 2.5 in 2/3.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
Aug 12, 12:27 PM UTC
Optional coverage
H2H available · odds available
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Astrakhan 1-1 Mashuk-KMV

2026-08-12T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Astrakhan 1-2 Mashuk-KMV

2023-09-03T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Mashuk-KMV 3-2 Astrakhan

2023-07-23T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

MarketBookmakerOddsImpliedAIGap
Home
1X2
1xBetBest price +4.7%5.9316.9%16.2%-0.7%
Marathonbet5.8517.1%16.2%-0.9%
Pinnacle5.2119.2%16.2%-3.0%
Draw
1X2
MarathonbetBest price +0.1%3.5028.6%25.3%-3.3%
1xBet3.5028.6%25.3%-3.3%
Pinnacle3.4928.7%25.3%-3.4%
Away
1X2
1xBetBest price +0.6%1.5564.5%58.5%-6.0%
Pinnacle1.5464.9%58.5%-6.4%
Marathonbet1.5365.4%58.5%-6.9%
Over 2.5
Totals
PinnacleBest price +0.3%2.1346.9%43.9%-3.0%
Marathonbet2.1247.2%43.9%-3.3%
1xBet2.1247.2%43.9%-3.3%
Under 2.5
Totals
MarathonbetBest price +0.4%1.6461.0%56.1%-4.9%
1xBet1.6461.0%56.1%-4.9%
Pinnacle1.6261.7%56.1%-5.6%
Yes
BTTS
MarathonbetBest price2.1446.7%43.5%-3.2%
1xBet2.1446.7%43.5%-3.2%
No
BTTS
1xBetBest price +0.6%1.6261.7%56.5%-5.2%
Marathonbet1.6062.5%56.5%-6.0%
Home or Draw
Double Chance
MarathonbetBest price2.2045.5%0.0%-45.5%
1xBet2.2045.5%0.0%-45.5%
Home or Away
Double Chance
MarathonbetBest price1.2282.0%0.0%-82.0%
1xBet1.2282.0%0.0%-82.0%
Draw or Away
Double Chance
MarathonbetBest price1.0793.5%0.0%-93.5%
1xBet1.0793.5%0.0%-93.5%

Model reasoning

Mashuk-KMV look more likely to win away, with an away win probability of 58.5% versus 16.2% for Astrakhan. The recent form also leans slightly toward Mashuk-KMV, with their sequence WL compared to Astrakhan’s WWL, and both teams have limited sample sizes. Defensively, both sides have shown some ability to keep things tight, with each recording 1 clean sheet in their short league runs. However, Astrakhan have scored more overall (6 goals in 3 matches) than Mashuk-KMV (1 goal in 2 matches), which keeps the draw in play at 25.3%. For goals, the market signals a moderate chance of a higher-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals at 43.9%. Both teams to score is also close to even at 43.5%, suggesting the match could be decided by a narrow margin rather than a clear goal-fest. Given the relatively low scoring output from Mashuk-KMV and the close defensive indicators, the away win is plausible but not strongly supported, aligning with the high risk level and the modest confidence score of 35.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-1

Pre-kickoff call

Away Win · 58.5% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.1842 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Wed, 12 Aug 2026 14:00 UTC, before kickoff at 1.55 (1xBet), by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.