Pro League
Finished
High risk

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC

01Full time
Fri, Aug 21, 06:00 PMEGO Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 55/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

Al-Qadisiyah FC (WWWWW) project at 2.1 expected goals versus 1.1 for Al-Ittihad FC (DWWLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 55/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

55/100

Confidence
55/100

Strongest cover

1X

85.1% probability

Risk classification

High

19.6% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AF win65.5%
Draw19.6%
AF win14.9%

Goals

Over 1.583.5%
Over 2.562.1%
Under 2.537.9%

Both teams to score

Yes58.4%
No41.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Al-Qadisiyah FC

15/15 recent form points

WWWWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.44
Shots on target
Unavailable

Al-Ittihad FC

7/15 recent form points

DWWLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.62
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC

2026-08-21T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al-Ittihad FC 1-5 Al-Qadisiyah FC

2026-05-21T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 Al-Ittihad FC

2026-01-22T18:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Ittihad FC 3-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC

2025-05-30T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC

2025-03-06T20:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Al-Ittihad FC 3-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC

2024-10-19T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-4 Al-Ittihad FC

2021-02-28T15:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Qadisiyah FC

2020-11-27T16:40:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC

2019-01-10T16:50:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Al-Ittihad FC 0-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC

2018-09-15T19:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Al-Qadisiyah at home look stronger overall, with a 23W 8D 3L record and a big positive goal difference from 83 scored versus 34 conceded. Their recent form is also very strong, showing five straight wins, which supports the idea that they can control the match. Al-Ittihad’s away record is less convincing, with 16W 7D 11L and a weaker scoring profile of 55 goals versus 48 conceded. Their recent form is mixed, with two wins followed by two losses, which makes it harder to rely on them to consistently perform away. The goal outlook leans toward a higher-scoring game: Al-Qadisiyah’s defense is relatively solid with 10 clean sheets, but they still score heavily, while Al-Ittihad concede 48 overall. That combination aligns with the probabilities for over 2.5 goals (62.1%) and both teams to score (58.4%). Given the home advantage and form, a home win is the most likely outcome, but the confidence is only moderate and the risk is high because Al-Ittihad can still find goals and the away results aren’t completely one-sided.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 65.5% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.5766 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:30 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Al-Qadisiyah FC predictions · Al-Ittihad FC predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.